Bitcoin mining is experiencing its most complex structural adjustment since the protocol's creation. Despite BTC price hovering around $61,000 and network hashrate near an all-time high of 1 ZH/s, miner profitability continues to deteriorate. Key indicators—including production costs, fee revenue, hashrate expansion, and industry security budget—all suggest the mining sector is operating close to breakeven levels.
Massive Gap Between Theoretical and Actual Revenue
Data shows that at a BTC price of ~$61,000, the theoretical daily revenue for all miners would be approximately $78 million, but actual daily revenue is only about $33 million—a 136% discrepancy. Network hashrate is near 1 ZH/s, yet fee revenue remains depressed at roughly $0.22 million per day, far below the ~$9.7 million implied by historical relationships. As halving events continue to reduce new issuance, Bitcoin miners face growing profitability pressure.
Cost Structure Worsens: Electricity Eats Up 71.5% of Revenue
Beyond falling revenues, cost pressures are mounting. In 2025, total miner revenue was about $17.2 billion, while electricity costs alone reached ~$12.3 billion—71.5% of total revenue. Global miner hardware investment stood at ~$4.5 billion. Comprehensive estimates place the industry breakeven price at roughly $65,000, meaning that at current BTC levels, relying solely on mining operations is barely sustainable. Miners are being forced to diversify income sources.
2028 Halving: Accelerated Shakeout and Business Model Transition
After the 2028 halving, the lower bound of Bitcoin production costs is expected to rise to approximately $93,289, accelerating the concentration of mining toward a few large, well-capitalized, and revenue-diversified firms. Compared to traditional miners dependent on block rewards, institutional miners with access to low-cost electricity, AI/HPC compute hosting, and stronger balance sheets are likely to gain a competitive edge in the next cycle. An increasing number of mining companies are pivoting from pure bitcoin producers to infrastructure operators, energy managers, and AI/HPC compute infrastructure providers. The real shakeout in Bitcoin mining has just begun.
Views above are partly from BIT on Target; contact for the full BIT on Target report.
