Mining Profitability Deteriorates: Actual Revenue Severely Below Theoretical
Bitcoin mining is undergoing its most complex structural adjustment since the protocol’s inception. Although Bitcoin price remains around $61,000 and the network hashrate has reached nearly 1 ZH/s (near historical highs), miner profitability continues to worsen. Data shows that at the current price, the theoretical daily revenue for all miners should be approximately $78 million, while actual revenue is only about $33 million—a 136% gap. Meanwhile, daily transaction fees average a mere $220,000, far below the ~$9.7 million implied by historical relationships. As halvings continue to compress new coin issuance, the profit pressure on miners is intensifying.
Cost Pressure Mounts: Electricity Accounts for 71.5% of Revenue
Beyond falling revenue, cost pressure on mining companies is also increasing. In 2025, total Bitcoin miner revenue was about $17.2 billion, of which electricity costs alone accounted for $12.3 billion (71.5% of total revenue). Global investment in mining hardware reached $4.5 billion. Comprehensive calculations put the industry-wide breakeven price at approximately $65,000, meaning that near the current price of $61,000, relying solely on mining operations cannot sustain desirable profit margins.
2028 Halving to Accelerate Shakeout: Breakeven Rises to $93,289
After the 2028 halving, the lower bound of Bitcoin production cost is expected to rise to approximately $93,289. This will accelerate consolidation toward a handful of large, well-capitalized miners with diversified revenue sources. Compared to traditional miners dependent on block rewards, institutional miners with access to low-cost power, AI/HPC hosting businesses, and stronger balance sheets are likely to gain a competitive edge in the next cycle. The focus of mining competition is shifting from hashrate expansion to business model upgrades, as more mining firms transform from pure Bitcoin producers into infrastructure operators, energy operators, and AI/HPC compute providers. The above insights are partly sourced from BIT on Target; contact us for the full report.
