BlockBeats reported on Oct. 3 that the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury has climbed to its highest level since 2002, driven by record fiscal deficits and persistent inflation. The report said U.S. CPI has now remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for 60 straight months, the longest such stretch since the 1980s. It also pointed to a sharp concentration of wealth in the United States: the richest 1% of households hold about $60.3 trillion in net assets, or 14.3 times the level held by the bottom 50% of households. Since 2020, the dollar’s purchasing power has fallen 23%.
For Bitcoin, the setup sends two signals at once. On one side, a higher long-end Treasury yield raises the discount rate and can weigh directly on valuations for non-yielding assets such as BTC. On the other, sticky inflation and a weaker dollar purchasing profile can strengthen the case for Bitcoin as a hard asset and an inflation hedge. The near-term question, according to the analysis cited by BlockBeats, is which force matters more: support from inflation and dollar weakness, or pressure on risk assets from rising long-dated Treasury yields.
BlockBeats reported on Oct. 3 that the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury has risen to its highest level since 2002, with record fiscal deficit spending and persistent inflation cited as the drivers behind the move.
According to the analysis, U.S. CPI has stayed above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target for 60 consecutive months, the longest run since the 1980s. The report also said wealth in the United States is highly concentrated. The richest 1% of households hold about $60.3 trillion in combined net assets, equal to 14.3 times the net assets of the bottom 50% of households. Since 2020, the dollar’s purchasing power has declined 23%.
Bitcoin faces two conflicting macro signals
The rise in the 30-year Treasury yield to a 24-year high puts direct pressure on Bitcoin because a higher discount rate can compress valuations for non-yielding assets.
At the same time, persistent inflation and the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power may strengthen Bitcoin’s case as a hard asset and an inflation hedge.
For now, the market is dealing with two signals pulling in opposite directions. In the short term, the key question is whether support from inflation and dollar weakness will outweigh the pressure that higher long-end Treasury yields place on risk assets including BTC.
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