Anthropic is expected to list on Nasdaq in the coming weeks, but conditions turned noticeably worse in the week after its public filing.
CNBC reported on Oct. 31 that, within days of the prospectus becoming public, major partners including Microsoft, Google and Amazon released earnings that added to market concerns about AI infrastructure spending. In the same week, reports also emerged that Blackstone had told investors Anthropic may not secure an investment-grade credit rating after going public.
CNBC said Anthropic was already facing a skeptical investor base. In its filing, the company disclosed an $80 billion net loss for the first half, hundreds of billions of dollars in compute commitments, and more than 90 pages of risk factors. Investors are also still waiting for its third-quarter results.
Blackstone reportedly sees a BB-range rating
According to the Financial Times, Blackstone told investors that Anthropic may not receive an investment-grade rating after its listing.
TechCrunch, citing the FT report, said Blackstone now expects Anthropic to be rated in the BB range, the highest tier within speculative grade, often referred to as junk status. Anthropic and Blackstone both declined to comment to TechCrunch.
Bloomberg Tax also reported that Anthropic’s listing documents disclosed nearly $900 billion in future payment obligations. Earlier coverage summarizing the company’s S-1 said that figure included about $321.4 billion in uncommenced compute leases, roughly $265.6 billion in minimum guaranteed commitments tied to cloud services and related contracts, and about $245 billion in minimum payment obligations from contracts signed or amended after June 30.
That earlier summary also said Anthropic held $131.7 billion in funds on its books.
Partner earnings sharpen concerns over AI spending
CNBC said capital expenditure figures or guidance from Microsoft, Google and Amazon came in below analyst expectations this quarter.
- Microsoft cut its full-year capital expenditure forecast from $175 billion to $170 billion.
- Alphabet maintained a ceiling of $205 billion.
- Amazon reiterated about $220 billion.
Cash flow pressure also showed up in the results. Amazon posted negative free cash flow for a second straight quarter, with a $42.4 billion outflow over the past 12 months. Google reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion. Microsoft still generated positive free cash flow of $18.6 billion, but that figure fell sharply for a second consecutive quarter, and the company announced a $25 billion corporate bond sale.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.9% on Oct. 30, marking its first three-week losing streak since March.
Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman told CNBC that earnings from the large cloud providers had created "more questions about capital structure." He added, "The concern now is that basically no company can fund this with cash flow generated by its own business."
IPO market has cooled, but Anthropic still stands out
CNBC said the IPO market has been largely frozen since SpaceX’s record listing in June. Smart ring maker Oura, Australian AI data center operator Firmus, and Solidigm, a unit of SK Hynix, have all delayed or abandoned listing plans.
Even so, Newman said the fear of missing out on what could be a "generation-defining" company is real. He described Anthropic’s prospectus as "very impressive," pointing to 1,300% year-over-year revenue growth, 900% net revenue retention, and an implied gross margin of 85%.
"Anthropic is the IPO market right now," he said. "I think other companies trying to go public during this period need to be very careful, or it would be foolish."
In the same week, rival OpenAI was also reported to have lowered its fundraising target from $30 billion to about $20 billion, while aiming to complete the raise before Anthropic’s listing.
