ARK Invest’s latest Big Ideas report places Bitcoin, tokenized assets, stablecoins and DeFi at the center of its blockchain outlook. The firm said Bitcoin held by ETFs rose 19.7% in 2025, from about 1.12 million BTC to roughly 1.29 million BTC. Over the same period, publicly traded companies increased their holdings from about 598,000 BTC to around 1.09 million BTC, a 73% jump. Combined, ETFs and listed companies lifted their share of Bitcoin supply from 8.7% to 12%.
The report spans AI, public blockchains, robotics, energy storage and multiomics. ARK’s broader argument is that these technologies are becoming more interdependent, with gains in one area unlocking new capabilities in another. In crypto, that translates into simultaneous shifts in capital flows, product design and infrastructure, rather than growth driven by a single narrative.
Bitcoin’s market role stays central in ARK’s 2030 view
ARK said Bitcoin delivered better risk-adjusted returns than most large-cap crypto assets and indexes through much of 2025. Since the cycle low in November 2022, as well as from the start of 2024 and the start of 2025, Bitcoin’s average annualized Sharpe ratio was higher than the averages recorded by Ether, SOL and the other constituents in the CoinDesk 10 Index.
The report also argued that Bitcoin’s volatility has eased as its role as a hedge asset has strengthened. Across 5-year, 3-year, 1-year and 3-month windows, Bitcoin’s drawdowns in 2025 were milder relative to its own history. ARK said its 2030 Bitcoin framework remains largely intact, with two assumptions revised: the total addressable market for “digital gold” expanded after gold’s market value surged 64.5% in 2025, while projected penetration in emerging-market hedging demand was cut by 80% to reflect rapid stablecoin adoption in developing economies.
By ARK’s estimates, smart contract networks and purely digital money could grow at roughly 61% annually to reach a $28 trillion market by 2030. Bitcoin could account for 70% of that total. The report projects Bitcoin itself could compound at about 63% over the next five years, rising from nearly $2 trillion to around $16 trillion by 2030. Smart contract platforms, in turn, could grow 54% annually to about $6 trillion, producing roughly $192 billion in annualized revenue at an average fee rate of 0.75%.
Stablecoin activity hits records as tokenized real-world assets expand
Stablecoins are another major pillar in the report. ARK said activity climbed to record levels after the regulatory clarity brought by the GENIUS Act. A range of companies and institutions announced plans for their own stablecoins, while BlackRock disclosed work on an internal tokenization platform. Tether, Circle and Stripe were cited among the major issuers and fintech firms launching or backing L1 blockchains optimized for stablecoin use.
In December 2025, the 30-day moving average of stablecoin transaction volume reached $3.5 trillion, equal to 2.3 times the combined value of Visa, PayPal and remittances. Supply also grew sharply. Total stablecoin supply increased about 50% in 2025, from $210 billion to $307 billion, with USDT accounting for 61% and USDC for 25%. By transaction share, USDC led with about 60%, followed by USDT at roughly 35%.
ARK added that Sky Protocol was the only stablecoin issuer outside the largest incumbents to exceed a $10 billion market cap by the end of 2025. PayPal’s PYUSD grew more than sixfold to $3.4 billion. In tokenized real-world assets, the market expanded 208% in 2025 to $18.9 billion. BlackRock’s $1.7 billion BUIDL money market fund was listed as one of the largest products, representing 20% of the $9 billion tokenized U.S. Treasuries segment. Tokenized gold was led by Tether’s XAUT and Paxos’ PAXG, with market capitalizations of $1.8 billion and $1.6 billion, together making up 83% of that category. Tokenized public equities approached $750 million.
ARK estimates tokenized assets could grow from $19 billion to $11 trillion over time, equal to about 1.38% of all financial assets. The report said wider adoption still depends on clearer regulation and stronger institutional-grade infrastructure.
Revenue shifts toward applications as DeFi scales up
The report argues that crypto value capture is moving away from base networks and toward applications. Traditional firms are also building their own onchain rails. ARK named Circle, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Robinhood and Stripe as companies launching branded L1 or L2 networks to support products such as Bitcoin-backed lending, tokenized stocks and ETFs, and stablecoin payment rails.
Revenue data was used to support that case. ARK said application revenue reached about $3.8 billion in 2025, a record high, driven by Hyperliquid, Pump.fun and PancakeSwap. One-fifth of that yearly revenue came in January alone, the strongest month on record. The report also said 70 applications and protocols now generate more than $1 million in monthly recurring revenue.
DeFi balance sheets are also catching up with many fintech firms. Every one of the top 50 DeFi platforms had total value locked above $1 billion, while the top 12 were all above $5 billion. ARK singled out Hyperliquid, saying the platform generated more than $800 million in annual revenue in 2025 with just 15 employees. Perpetuals, stablecoins and memecoins were described as key onchain verticals attracting users and capital at scale.
On network composition, Ethereum now holds more than $400 billion in total asset value. Across the eight most popular blockchains, seven derive 90% of their market capitalization from stablecoins and the top 50 tokens. Outside Solana, memecoins account for around 3% or less of market value on most chains; on Solana, the share is about 21%. ARK also said only a small number of digital assets are likely to retain monetary characteristics and function as highly liquid stores of value.