Asset manager Ark Invest, in a joint report with Bitcoin custody platform Unchained, argued that quantum computing is a long-term risk for Bitcoin, not an imminent danger. Published on Wednesday, the report was authored by Dhruv Bansal (co-founder and CSO of Unchained), Tom Honzik (director of custody research at Unchained), and David Puell (research trading analyst and associate portfolio manager for digital assets at Ark Invest).
“Today’s quantum systems lack the capabilities required to compromise Bitcoin,” the authors wrote. Bitcoin wallets rely on elliptic curve cryptography, and current quantum computers fall far short of the power needed to break that encryption. Even if quantum systems eventually reach that threshold, the threat will emerge gradually and at high cost to attackers, the report said.
Broader internet security would be hit first
The report emphasized that a major quantum breakthrough would likely disrupt foundational internet security—such as TLS and RSA encryption—before targeting Bitcoin. Governments, tech firms, and financial institutions would then coordinate a response, buying the Bitcoin network time. This logic undercuts the “quantum crisis is imminent” narrative that has spooked some investors.
Earlier this year, Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood recommended dropping Bitcoin allocation from 10% to zero in favor of gold, citing quantum risk. His comment rattled the market. Ark's report offers a data-driven counterargument.
35% of supply theoretically at risk, but not immediately
Ark estimated that about 35% of Bitcoin's supply—roughly 6.9 million BTC—sits in address types theoretically exposed to future quantum attacks. This includes roughly 1.7 million BTC believed to be lost and about 5.2 million BTC that could be migrated to safer wallets. Among those vulnerable addresses is Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet, holding around 1 million BTC.
However, the report argues that these funds are not in immediate danger. A CRQC (cryptographically relevant quantum computer) capable of breaking a 256-bit ECC key would be needed, and such a machine is unlikely to exist before the report's “Stage 3” timeline. Some fear an attack could happen before 2030; others say it's “decades away.” The report concludes that either scenario allows the Bitcoin community time to upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography and encourage coin migration.
“The good news is that we already know how to protect against quantum attacks,” the report stated. “The majority of Bitcoin’s supply is held in quantum-resistant addresses, and the remainder is held in quantum-vulnerable addresses that should not be at risk until Stage 3 of our timeline.”
Bitcoin price and market context
Bitcoin traded around $70,000 at the time of publication. The report does not offer short-term price predictions, focusing instead on long-term technical risks and mitigation strategies. Ark Invest manages multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs, giving its research significant weight in the crypto asset market.