BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is back with another bold call. In a brief social post, he wrote “HYPE to $150,” followed by “F*** TradFi, f*** the Clarity Act, Hail Caesar.” This is Hayes’ second public cheer for HYPE this year; in a March 9 Substack investment thesis, he set a $150 price target for August 2026, when HYPE traded around $30. Three months later, the token has more than doubled to $67.
Hayes’ $150 math
Hayes values HYPE using an exchange token valuation framework. He compares Hyperliquid to traditional finance (TradFi) exchanges: Hyperliquid uses 93% of its platform revenue to auto-buyback and burn HYPE, akin to a listed exchange using nearly all profits to repurchase its own stock. Hayes estimates that if Hyperliquid’s 30-day annualized revenue returns to last August’s peak of $1.4 billion, HYPE would be worth $150, even at a lower multiple than some TradFi exchanges. He positions Hyperliquid as the “Caesar” of decentralized perpetual swaps, replacing TradFi exchanges as the new price discovery center. His opposition to the Clarity Act is straightforward: he believes the bill strengthens regulated exchanges' moats rather than protecting investors.
Still, Hayes’ track record is mixed. He predicted Bitcoin would hit $200K by March; BTC stalled near $71K. Maelstrom Fund’s 2025 performance has been uneven — wins on HYPE and PENDLE, losses on PUMP.
Three catalysts aligned
HYPE hit an all-time high of $67.24 on May 29, coinciding with three developments. First, the CFTC on May 28 approved Kalshi to list bitcoin perpetuals — the first legal perps in the U.S. Rather than stealing Hyperliquid’s share, the regulatory nod removed legal overhang for the entire perp category. Second, Grayscale is negotiating about $115 million in seed funding for a HYPE ETF and has filed an S-1 with the SEC. The spot HYPE ETF pulled in $36 million in its first five days. Third, ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher said Hyperliquid’s scale potential “may be bigger than Nasdaq.” When the owner of the NYSE says that about a decentralized derivatives platform, the market hears: TradFi isn’t ignoring Hyperliquid; it’s studying it.
On-chain wrinkle
Hayes’ on-chain activity added a twist. On May 23, chain sleuth Lookonchain flagged a wallet linked to Hayes: it deposited 115,453 HYPE into Bybit (then worth ~$6.33M), then withdrew 85,714 HYPE (at $62.69, ~$5.37M) three hours later. He sold more and bought back at a higher price, paying nearly $8 more per token. Hayes hasn’t commented. The “sell at 54, buy at 62” pattern doesn’t necessarily indicate deception — it could be liquidity management — but for retail traders, reading the chain alongside the tweets is always more instructive than taking a call at face value.
HYPE now trades around $64.69, still about 132% shy of Hayes’ $150 target. Support sits at $60, resistance at the ATH of $67.24. If Hayes’ August timeline holds, HYPE needs to double in under three months. The 93% revenue burn flywheel is spinning, the CFTC gave a green light, Grayscale is queuing up, and the ICE boss is praising. The bullets are loaded; the market holds the trigger.