Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, says potential IPOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX, along with higher oil prices, could set off a broader market correction, with Bitcoin likely taking the first blow. He laid out that view in a new essay titled Reality Test.
His argument is centered on two pressures. First, large public listings can pull cash out of existing markets as investors rotate capital into new offerings. Second, oil remains a key macro variable in his framework, and he believes markets are not properly pricing its impact. In his view, the AI trade looks overheated, and a repricing could spread well beyond equities.
Maelstrom Cut Four Altcoins and Kept BTC, ETH
Hayes’ fund, Maelstrom, has already adjusted its portfolio. It sold HYPE, NEAR, WLD, and ZEC, while keeping only Bitcoin and Ethereum as core holdings. Hayes also said the fund may use derivatives to put on short positions, a move aimed at guarding against downside risk rather than exiting the market entirely.
That positioning matches his broader thesis. In a risk-off move, Bitcoin is often sold first because it is the most liquid crypto asset. Investors can exit it quickly, and that makes it the easiest source of cash when sentiment turns.
Oil Prices and AI Infrastructure Costs Are Central to the Thesis
Reality Test puts unusual weight on energy costs. Hayes argues that rising oil prices could expose weak spots in the AI boom, especially for data centers that consume massive amounts of electricity. If energy expenses rise sharply, margins come under pressure fast. That could force investors to reassess profit expectations across the sector.
He believes this stress could emerge between now and September 2025. If that happens, risk assets may slide before any fresh wave of liquidity arrives to support markets again.
Bitcoin May Drop First, but Hayes Is Watching the Next Cycle
Hayes is not calling for the end of crypto. His point is that markets may need a reset first. He referenced the pattern from early 2020, when Bitcoin fell hard and then surged more than 1,000% in the following liquidity cycle. In that setup, the drawdown comes before the rebound.
At the time cited in the report, Bitcoin was trading at $62,874.98, down 0.13% over 24 hours, with an intraday high of $63,478 and a low of $62,410. Market capitalization stood at $1.25 trillion, while trading volume reached $34.46 billion. The article also noted that BTC was near $83,000 in May and had since fallen nearly 24%.