Arthur Hayes

3 days agoNews Editor

Arthur Hayes exits ENA after years of bullish calls, selling about 98% below his original $10 target

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said he has sold all ENA held in the directional book of his investment fund, Maelstrom, with ENA trading at $0.198 this month when he disclosed the exit. Protos framed the sale against a long record of bullish public calls on Ethena’s token, including repeated $10 price predictions that began in April 2024 and continued through later, lower targets in 2025 and 2026. The report lists a series of posts and remarks in which Hayes described ENA as a core part of the CeFi and DeFi trading ecosystem, said his fund owned large amounts of the token, and urged followers to buy it. Even after ENA fell below $0.70, he argued it could rise 51x from those levels. By 2026, his public target had dropped to $1 and later to at least $0.50, before he finally disclosed a full sale. Based on the original $10 target cited by Protos, the $0.198 trading level at the time of his exit was roughly 98% lower.

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Arkham

5 days agoNews Editor

Arkham flags whale 0xFF1 for selling ENA, MNT, ETH and LDO before market drop

Arkham said whale address 0xFF1 sold ENA, MNT, ETH and LDO about one hour ago, closing positions that had been opened roughly four months earlier. The wallet sold about $2.597 million in total against an estimated cost basis of about $2.257 million, leaving an overall profit of around $340,000. By token, ENA generated about $513,000 in profit after being bought for roughly $433,800 and sold for about $946,900. MNT posted a loss of about $28,700, while ETH showed a loss of about $180,000. LDO added about $35,400 in profit. Odaily also noted that Arthur Hayes said earlier in the day that his investment firm Maelstrom had exited ETH, ENA, UNI and other altcoin-related positions to lock in gains. The report added that the crypto market then saw a sharp decline later that evening.

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Arthur Hayes

6 days agoNews Editor

Arthur Hayes exits Maelstrom directional positions, says markets may need to fall before rising

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of family office Maelstrom, said on Oct. 24 that he had exited all of the firm’s directional positions and taken profits on ETH, ENA, UNI, and other altcoins. In a post on X, Hayes said he believes markets "have to go down to go up" and described the macro and geopolitical backdrop as looking "a bit dicey," adding that he plans to stay on the sidelines until he sees an all-clear signal. He did not disclose the size of the positions he closed, nor did he explain what indicators he would use to determine that the all-clear had arrived. Before Hayes published the post, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had already recorded net outflows for two straight trading days, totaling more than $770 million, according to Farside Investors. CoinGecko data cited in the report showed Bitcoin at $80,747 and Ether at $2,376 as of the afternoon in Taiwan on Oct. 24, while ENA and UNI, two tokens Hayes specifically mentioned, were both down on the day.

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Arthur Hayes

1 months agoNews Editor

Arthur Hayes says his short-term bets are ETH, ENA and ETHFI, and that he no longer holds ZEC

Arthur Hayes said in his latest article that Maelstrom’s preferred crypto assets have not changed, with a long-term structural bullish position in Bitcoin still serving as the anchor of the portfolio. For more speculative short-term trades through the end of 2026, he named ETH, ENA and ETHFI, assigning target prices of $10,000, $0.5 and $2, respectively. Hayes also made a joke about his former ZEC position, saying he had no idea where it went and guessing that AI stole it from the Orchard pool. Odaily noted that Orchard is Zcash’s shielded pool and said the comment was a tongue-in-cheek way of indicating that Hayes no longer holds a Zcash position. The remarks were published by Odaily in a newsflash item.

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Arthur Hayes

22 days agoNews Editor

Arthur Hayes says AI data center overbuild could channel capital into Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO and co-founder of Maelstrom, said at the Gamma Prime investment conference in Singapore that humanity has wasted trillions of dollars on AI data centers. His core argument was that the current buildout may end in a bust followed by a bailout, with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies positioned to absorb part of the capital that follows. Hayes said AI companies such as Anthropic are not yet profitable, even as their computing demand underpins more than $1 trillion in investment-grade debt tied to the sector. He expects a pressure point to emerge once data centers now under construction are completed and infrastructure providers begin asking to be paid, a moment he said could arrive by late 2027 or 2028. He also outlined a scenario in which debt downgrades leave insurers undercapitalized, prompting Washington to step in by buying compute capacity or printing money for a rescue. In that case, he said, Bitcoin would be the best-performing asset. Hayes added a caveat: if AI becomes useful enough within the next 12 months, expanding demand could still make AI companies profitable.

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Arthur Hayes

23 days agoNews Editor

Arthur Hayes pitches FLOP at TOKEN2049, arguing AI agents need a currency tied directly to compute

Arthur Hayes used his TOKEN2049 appearance in Singapore on Oct. 7 to lay out a broad thesis for why AI agents need a native monetary system rather than relying on fiat, stablecoins, bitcoin, or model-specific AI tokens. Speaking under the title "FLOP Bigger Than Bitcoin," the Maelstrom CIO said the core economic input for agents is not a loosely defined token unit but raw compute, measured in floating point operations, or FLOPs. That idea sits at the center of FLOP, a new network he described as a way to connect GPU suppliers, validators, and AI agents through a payment rail built around what agents actually consume. Hayes said the project borrows from Bitcoin’s incentive design while replacing proof tied to hashing with "Proof of Useful Inference," or PoUI. He also outlined Techno Core, an HTTP-based sandbox where roughly 20 million agents have already created unique key pairs and interacted, including about 18 million agents that joined a trading contest tied to Nvidia pricing on Hyperliquid. On token design, he said FLOP’s genesis supply is about 2.483 billion tokens, all to be distributed by airdrop, with no VC pre-mine, presale, or auction. A large-scale airdrop is scheduled for late October, followed by a 90-day testnet, with mainnet and the genesis block planned for the first quarter of next year.

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Arthur Hayes

1 months agoNews Editor

Arthur Hayes says ETH is his biggest position and argues the Fed needs a real crisis before the next big liquidity wave

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, said on The Rollup podcast that Ethereum is currently his fund’s largest position, with smaller allocations to EtherFi and Ethena. His case for ETH is not that it is the strongest protocol on a technical basis, but that it remains the most disliked large-cap crypto asset while still avoiding the kind of protocol risk that could wipe out smaller tokens overnight. He pointed to Ethereum’s failure to reclaim its 2021 $5,000 high as part of the setup rather than a warning sign. Hayes also used the interview to outline a broader macro view. He said the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has been rising, but not on the scale seen in 2020 or 2009, which in his view helps explain why Bitcoin has moved from $63,000 to $80,000 rather than much further. For a sharper acceleration in liquidity, he argued, policymakers need political cover in the form of a genuine crisis. The market signal he keeps watching is EUR/JPY. Hayes linked yen strength to Japanese institutions selling dollar assets and needing dollar funding, while tying euro weakness to stress around French banks, the U.S. repo market, and the constraints of the euro system. In his scenario, a drop in EUR/JPY from 182 to 140 or even 120 would create severe pressure on the French banking system and open the path he associates with Bitcoin reaching $250,000 or $500,000.

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Arthur Hayes

1 months agoNews Editor

Arthur Hayes says $58,000 is Bitcoin’s cycle low, calls ETH his top directional bet and targets a 5x move in Ethena

Arthur Hayes used a new appearance on Kyle Chasse Crypto to lay out a broad market view that now differs sharply from what he said on the same show about ten weeks earlier. Back then, he was talking about a local top. This time, he said he is buying again and argued that $58,000 is not just a local floor for Bitcoin but the cycle low. He tied that call to what he sees as a policy shift around yen intervention, a larger U.S. Treasury buyback program in early August, and a wider liquidity backdrop that he believes favors crypto. Hayes also said Ethereum is Maelstrom’s largest directional position, even though the fund owns more Bitcoin in absolute size. His case for ETH rests on the idea that this cycle’s narrative is built around real-world asset trading on a layer-one chain, Ethereum’s failure so far to break its 2021 high, and its long operating history. On Hyperliquid, he said he has fully exited, arguing that the asymmetry is gone and that a U.S. compliance path would require compromises to its model. He was especially bullish on Ethena, saying the token could rise 5x over the next two to three months as earlier investors have been paid out, unlock pressure has cleared, and the project is considering tokenholder revenue sharing. Hayes also spent much of the interview promoting Flop, a project he says he returned from retirement to build as a payment network for AI compute, while disclosing his direct involvement and existing positions.

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