Crypto analyst Axel Adler said Bitcoin long-term holders, or LTHs, have now reduced their holdings for a seventh consecutive week, though the selling has not yet interrupted BTC’s price advance. According to the data he cited, the LTH net position change metric stayed positive from February through early August this year, with long-term holders adding about 1.2 million BTC in May alone. That reading turned negative on Aug. 17 and has remained in distribution territory ever since.
As of Sept. 28, long-term holders had reduced holdings by 73,400 BTC, a larger decline than the 1,100 BTC reduction recorded a week earlier. Adler said that figure still looks limited compared with the roughly 1.07 million BTC sold by long-term holders in November 2025. He added that if future selling expands again into the hundreds of thousands of BTC while Bitcoin’s price stops climbing, it could signal that the market’s ability to absorb supply is weakening.
He also pointed to the LTH SOPR metric, which has stayed above 1 for a second straight week. The indicator reached 1.24 on Sept. 21, its highest level since January, and stood at 1.18 on Sept. 28, implying that transferred BTC was realizing about 18% profit relative to cost basis.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler said Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have reduced their holdings for a seventh straight week, but the selling has not yet blocked BTC’s price climb. The market, he said, is still absorbing supply released by long-term holders.
LTH net position change has stayed negative since Aug. 17
Data cited by Adler shows the long-term holder net position change metric remained positive from February through early August this year. In May, long-term holders added about 1.2 million BTC. The metric turned negative on Aug. 17 and has remained in a distribution phase for seven consecutive weeks.
As of Sept. 28, the change in long-term holder positions showed a reduction of 73,400 BTC. That was a wider decline than the 1,100 BTC decrease recorded a week earlier.
Current selling is still smaller than the November 2025 episode
Adler said the present scale of selling remains relatively limited compared with the roughly 1.07 million BTC distributed by long-term holders in November 2025.
He said that if long-term holder selling reaches the hundreds of thousands of BTC again while BTC stops rising, that could mean the market’s ability to absorb supply is weakening.
LTH SOPR has remained above 1 for two weeks
The long-term holder SOPR metric has now stayed above 1 for a second consecutive week, indicating profit-taking by long-term holders. On Sept. 21, the indicator rose to 1.24, its highest level since January this year. As of Sept. 28, LTH SOPR stood at 1.18, meaning the BTC being transferred was realizing about 18% profit relative to cost basis.
The current data suggests long-term holders are gradually taking profits as BTC rises, while new demand is still able to absorb the supply coming into the market.
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