Bernstein has lowered its price target on Circle to $140 from $190 while maintaining an outperform rating, according to The Block. Analyst Gautam Chhugani said the threat from the Open USD alliance, backed by more than 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, is smaller than the market had expected. Circle shares closed at $64.32 on July 28.
The note outlined several changes in Circle’s operating metrics and forecasts. USDC ended the second quarter with supply of about $73 billion, down from $77 billion in the first quarter, while average supply rose to roughly $76 billion. Bernstein said average SOFR fell to 3.62% in the second quarter, reserve yield dropped to 3.46%, and reserve revenue increased to about $655 million.
The firm also highlighted growth in USDC balances on Hyperliquid, which rose from $5 billion in mid-May to more than $6 billion. Bernstein estimated that this generated roughly $210 million in annualized gross reserve revenue, with around $190 million directed to the exchange under a revenue-sharing agreement. It cut its end-2026 USDC supply forecast by 37% to $83 billion and lowered its 2028 forecast to $170 billion. Adjusted 2026 EBITDA was reduced 12% to $602 million, while EPS was cut from $1.98 to $0.92. Bernstein still expects total stablecoin supply to reach $4 trillion by 2035, with Circle holding about 30% market share. The report also noted that Circle received final OCC approval in July to establish Circle National Trust.
Bernstein has cut its price target for Circle to $140 from $190 while keeping an outperform rating, according to The Block.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani said the competitive threat posed by the Open USD alliance is lower than the market had expected. The alliance is backed by more than 140 institutions, including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe. Circle closed at $64.32 on July 28.
Second-quarter USDC supply and reserve revenue
USDC ended the second quarter with supply of about $73 billion, down from $77 billion in the first quarter. Average supply, however, rose to roughly $76 billion. During the same period, average SOFR declined to 3.62%, reserve yield fell to 3.46%, and reserve revenue climbed to about $655 million.
USDC balances on Hyperliquid increased
Bernstein said USDC balances on Hyperliquid grew from $5 billion in mid-May to more than $6 billion. That level generates about $210 million in annualized gross reserve revenue, and roughly $190 million of that is directed to the exchange under a revenue-sharing agreement.
Forecasts for supply and earnings were reduced
The firm lowered its end-2026 USDC supply forecast by 37% to $83 billion and cut its 2028 forecast to $170 billion. It also reduced its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate by 12% to $602 million. Its EPS forecast was lowered from $1.98 to $0.92.
Long-term outlook and OCC approval
Even with those forecast cuts, Bernstein still expects total stablecoin supply to reach $4 trillion by 2035, with Circle holding about 30% of that market.
The report added that Circle received final approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, or OCC, in July to establish Circle National Trust.
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