Bernstein is not backing down from its bullish bitcoin bet. On Feb. 9, the research and brokerage firm reaffirmed its $150,000 price target for bitcoin by end-2026, describing the current pullback as "the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history." Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a note: "What we are experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history."
A Self-Inflicted Crisis of Confidence, Not a Systemic Blow-Up
The analysts characterized the decline as self-inflicted rather than systemic. They pointed to the absence of major exchange collapses, hidden leverage, or cascading balance-sheet stress. "When all stars are aligned, Bitcoin community manufactures a self-imposed crisis of confidence. Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel. Media is back again to write an obituary. Time remains a flat circle on bitcoin," they said. The report highlights that spot bitcoin ETFs, expanding corporate treasury adoption, and continued involvement from large asset managers sharply differentiate this environment from past downturns that led to prolonged crypto winters.
From $60K to $70K: A Week of Whiplash
The pullback unfolded rapidly between Feb. 2 and Feb. 9. On Feb. 5, bitcoin slid to near $60,000, its lowest since October 2024, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations amid a global risk-off mood tied to weakness in tech stocks and precious metals. A swift rebound pushed prices back toward the low-$70,000 range before stalling. Bitcoin ended the week down about 15%, trading below $70,000. Bernstein identified $60,000 as a hard floor, tied to the 200-week moving average and the cost basis of long-term holders.
Long-Term Target Intact: $1 Million by 2033
Despite adjustments to its medium-term outlook, Bernstein maintained its extreme bullish forecast of bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2033. The projection rests on three structural pillars: spot ETFs managing roughly $3 trillion in assets by 2033, absorbing 15% of circulating supply and creating a liquidity vacuum; public corporations following the active leverage model (think MicroStrategy) to replace cash reserves as a hedge against currency debasement; and the traditional four-year halving cycle being superseded by a structural demand era where institutional capital prevents deep, multi-year crypto winters. The firm sees the $150K target as just the first milestone on a longer path.