Bernstein sees a new USDC growth cycle and raises Circle target to $140

Bernstein says USDC is entering a new growth cycle after supply rose by about $2 billion in seven days, ending six months of stagnant or declining growth. In a Monday research note, the firm said the move reflects what it called "digital dollar reflation." Bernstein kept an Outperform rating on Circle (CRCL) and held its $140 price target, which it said implies roughly 60% upside from current levels. Circle shares are up about 40% over the past month. The bank said the next phase of stablecoin growth could come from several sources: a stronger crypto market, clearer U.S. regulation, tokenized capital markets and wider use of stablecoins for payments. It also pointed to early signs of stablecoin payments by AI agents. USDC remains the second-largest dollar-backed stablecoin by market cap, well behind Tether's USDt (USDT), but Bernstein said it has made clear gains in transaction activity. The firm said USDC's share of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume rose from about 40% in 2025 to more than 60% so far in 2026, overtaking USDt on that metric. Circle's share price has been volatile since its June 2025 IPO. The company priced shares at $31 and raised about $1.1 billion in the offering. After a strong post-listing run, the stock had fallen back toward its IPO price by November 2025 as a broader crypto downturn weighed on publicly traded names tied to the sector. In its latest quarter, Circle reported $701 million in revenue and $48 million in net income, both higher than a year earlier.