Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Assets, has apologized to clients, admitting that his bullish Bitcoin forecast may have been too conservative. Just last month, Kendrick projected a new all-time high of $120,000 by mid-2025, driven by a strategic asset reallocation away from U.S. assets and accumulation by whales (large holders). However, the rally has accelerated faster than anticipated. As of Thursday, Bitcoin was trading near $100,000, surging more than 3% on the day to $99,293.54.
“The dominant story for Bitcoin has changed again,” Kendrick said in an email to clients. “It was correlation to risk assets… It then became a way to position for strategic asset reallocation out of U.S. assets. It is now all about flows. And flows are coming in many forms.”
Flows Take Center Stage: Institutional Adoption Accelerates
Kendrick noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $5.3 billion in net inflows over the past three weeks alone. This level of activity signals surging institutional interest, further strengthening Bitcoin's new role as a macro asset in global portfolios. Concrete examples include: Strategy ramping up its Bitcoin purchases; Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund holding BlackRock's spot Bitcoin IBIT; and the Swiss National Bank reportedly holding shares of MSTR, often viewed as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. These traditionally conservative players entering the space underscore Bitcoin's transition from a niche asset to a mainstream allocation.
Bitcoin's Role Transformation: From Tech Stock Proxy to Global Macro Asset
Previously, Bitcoin was frequently lumped in with high-risk U.S. tech stocks, mirroring their volatility and correlation with the Nasdaq. But with the current wave of institutional adoption, Kendrick believes Bitcoin has adopted a new narrative—it is no longer merely a barometer for risk appetite but an independent macro asset class. Its correlation with equities is diminishing, and flows are becoming the dominant driver. This structural shift could propel Bitcoin well beyond $120,000 this summer and toward Kendrick's year-end forecast of $200,000.
Outlook: $120K as a Stepping Stone, Year-End Target $200K
“We expect these supportive factors to push BTC to a fresh all-time high around $120,000 in Q2,” Kendrick had said earlier. Now, with Bitcoin already near six figures, $120,000 may be just a stepping stone. Given the torrent of inflows—$5.3 billion in ETF inflows in just three weeks—and the involvement of sovereign wealth funds and central banks, Kendrick's $200,000 year-end target appears increasingly plausible. Bitcoin's new chapter is only beginning.