Binance Research said in a new report that the amount of time Bitcoin spends below its 200-day moving average before a golden cross may help explain the scale of gains that follow. The study reviewed 12 historical golden cross events, defined as the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average, and found a link between the number of days Bitcoin closed below the 200-day average in the prior year and later price performance.
According to the report, six cases qualified as “deep resets,” meaning Bitcoin traded below the 200-day moving average for at least 150 days before the golden cross formed. In those instances, Bitcoin’s peak gain over the following year ranged from about 100% to 600%.
The report also said the current macro backdrop remains a test for the market. Binance Research linked Bitcoin’s recent pullback to rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.17% on Sept. 25, its highest level since 2007. Even so, spot demand held up during the bond sell-off. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $998.95 million in net inflows on Sept. 21, the largest single-day inflow of 2026, the report said. Binance Research added that if Bitcoin holds above its 50-week moving average through upcoming PCE inflation and employment data releases, that would offer a stronger confirmation signal.
Binance Research said in its latest report that it compared the performance of 12 historical Bitcoin golden crosses, defined as the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average.
Time spent below the 200-day average before a golden cross showed a link to later gains
The report said the number of days Bitcoin’s closing price stayed below the 200-day moving average in the year before a golden cross formed — described as the “reset depth” — was linked to subsequent upside.
Among six cases classified as “deep resets,” Bitcoin’s peak gain in the following 12 months ranged from about 100% to 600%. Binance Research defined a deep reset as a period in which Bitcoin closed below the 200-day moving average for at least 150 days during the year before the golden cross.
Macro conditions remain another test for the market
The report also said the current market backdrop adds another layer of pressure. Binance Research linked Bitcoin’s recent pullback to rising US Treasury yields. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury climbed to 5.17% on Sept. 25, the highest level since 2007.
Still, the report said spot demand remained resilient during the bond sell-off. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $998.95 million in net inflows on Sept. 21, the largest single-day inflow of 2026.
PCE inflation and jobs data are the next focus
Binance Research said that if Bitcoin can stay above its 50-week moving average through the upcoming PCE inflation and employment data releases, that would provide a stronger confirmation signal.
This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan. Disclaimer:
The market information, project data, and third-party content displayed on this platform are for industry information sharing only and do not constitute any form of investment advice or return commitment.
Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Users should fully assess their risk tolerance and make independent decisions. All profits, losses, and legal responsibilities are borne by the users themselves.
