Bitcoin could make a strong move higher after the next U.S. midterm elections, according to a March 11 report from Binance Research. The firm argues that once election-related uncertainty starts to clear, both equities and crypto have often responded with meaningful upside.
The report points to long-term market data showing that the S&P 500 has gained an average of 19% in the 12 months following midterm elections. It also notes that the index has not posted a negative return in that window since 1939. Bitcoin has a much shorter record, but Binance Research says the pattern has looked similar since the crypto market became more liquid around 2014. Across the three completed midterm cycles, Bitcoin delivered an average gain of about 54% over the three years after the election.
Midterm years have often been the roughest part of the cycle
Binance Research describes midterm years as the most volatile phase in the four-year U.S. political cycle. Investors tend to turn cautious when the direction of policy and economic priorities is still unclear. That uncertainty has frequently shown up in pre-election drawdowns.
Historically, the S&P 500 has recorded average drawdowns of around 16% during midterm years. In many cases, those corrections took place before voting day, when uncertainty was at its highest. Bitcoin has tended to follow the same broad pattern, but with much larger swings. The report says past midterm years brought average BTC declines of roughly 56%, highlighting how sensitive the asset can be to shifts in risk appetite.
Once election results are known, markets usually have a clearer view of fiscal policy and regulation. Capital often rotates back into risk assets at that stage. Binance Research says that reset has been a key driver behind strong post-election rallies.
Macro events are still steering the market now
The report also stresses that the election cycle is only part of the picture. At the moment, global macro events remain the main force behind market moves. Rising geopolitical tensions have introduced new uncertainty across financial markets, and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route, have already affected energy prices and investor sentiment.
Oil has been highly volatile in recent days, and Bitcoin has moved in line with broader macro assets. Binance Research says BTC, crude oil, and U.S. equities have recently shown similar price patterns, even though crypto tends to post larger swings. That leaves Bitcoin closely tied to the wider risk environment in the short term.
Spot ETF activity points to rising U.S. participation
Binance Research also says activity tied to U.S. investors appears to be picking up. Trading linked to spot Bitcoin ETFs increased over the past week, suggesting renewed interest from traditional market participants.
Even so, ETF volume still accounts for a relatively small share of total Bitcoin spot trading. The report says that leaves room for broader institutional participation over time. For now, Binance Research describes the market as fragile and says macro risks remain unresolved, even as historical cycles suggest that periods of uncertainty have often been followed by stronger openings for long-term investors after midterm elections pass.