Bitcoin mining is experiencing its most complex structural adjustment since the protocol's creation. Although Bitcoin's price remains around $61,000 and network hash rate is near 1 ZH/s (close to all-time highs), miner profitability continues to deteriorate. According to BIT Research's latest report, indicators such as production cost, fee income, hash rate expansion, and industry security budget all suggest that the mining industry is operating near the break-even point, and the 2028 halving could further accelerate industry consolidation.
Revenue Structure and Hash Rate Expansion Imbalance
The challenges facing the mining industry go beyond the block subsidy reduction from halving; the transition to a fee-driven revenue model has not yet materialized. Data shows that at a Bitcoin price of ~$61,000, the theoretical daily revenue for all miners should be approximately $78 million, but actual revenue is only about $33 million — a gap of 136%. Meanwhile, network hash rate has approached 1 ZH/s, yet fee income remains stagnant at an average of just $220,000 per day, far below the ~$9.7 million implied by historical relationships. As halvings continue to compress new issuance, Bitcoin miners face mounting profit pressure.
Cost Pressure and Break-Even Level
In addition to declining revenue, cost pressures are intensifying. In 2025, total Bitcoin miner revenue was approximately $17.2 billion, of which electricity costs alone accounted for $12.3 billion, or 71.5% of total revenue. Global mining hardware investment reached about $4.5 billion. Taken together, the industry's overall break-even price is estimated at ~$65,000, meaning that at current price levels, relying solely on mining operations is insufficient to maintain desirable profitability.
2028 Halving: A Catalyst for Mining Shakeout
Expectations for the 2028 halving suggest the lower bound of Bitcoin production cost could rise to approximately $93,289, accelerating the concentration of the industry among a few large, well-capitalized, and diversified mining enterprises. Increasingly, mining companies are transitioning from pure Bitcoin producers to infrastructure operators, energy operators, and AI/HPC computing infrastructure providers. Compared with traditional miners reliant on block rewards, institutional miners with access to low-cost power, AI/HPC hosting services, and stronger balance sheets will likely gain a competitive edge in the next cycle.
The above insights are from BIT on Target; contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.
