BIT Research said gold and Bitcoin have both posted breakouts in recent trading. Bitcoin has broken above the descending trendline formed during the current bear market and moved back above the 21-week moving average, a level the report described as an important dividing line. Gold, meanwhile, has regained strength after setting a record high earlier this year and then undergoing a notable pullback.
The report placed those moves against a changing macro backdrop. U.S. government debt has surpassed $40 trillion, while the 10-year Treasury yield at one point approached 4.70%, leaving long-term financing costs under pressure around the world.
$40 Trillion in U.S. Debt and Rising Pressure on the Long End
Over the past year, U.S. government debt increased by about 10%, rising from $36 trillion to $40 trillion. In early July 2025, the U.S. statutory debt ceiling was raised by another $5 trillion, creating more room for further debt expansion.
BIT also noted that large U.S. technology companies are issuing debt at record scale to finance AI infrastructure buildout. That additional corporate bond supply is competing with Treasuries for investor capital.
Demand from overseas buyers is changing as well. Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, with holdings of about $1.1 trillion. But as Japan’s 10-year government bond yield nears 3% and its 30-year yield rises above 4%, domestic bonds have become more attractive. The report said Chinese investors have shown a similar shift, with U.S. Treasury holdings down by about $700 billion from their historical peak.
Against that backdrop, the U.S. Treasury announced on Aug. 19 that it would at least double the size of liquidity support buybacks for nominal coupon Treasuries with maturities of 10 to 30 years. The maximum size of a single operation was raised from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and the program is set to run from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4.
According to BIT Research, that step is not identical to the Federal Reserve’s 2011 Operation Twist, but it is aimed at producing a similar market effect: easing pressure on the long end and preventing long-term financing costs from rising further.
Gold and Bitcoin Move Higher Together
The report said a gold-and-Bitcoin mix remains a relatively effective way to hedge against continuously rising debt. As U.S. debt expands, the case for capital rotating toward hard assets such as gold and Bitcoin is getting stronger.
BIT added that the market had previously priced in the possibility of two more rate hikes this year. It said the renewed cooling trend in inflation is now introducing a different set of conditions.
On technical signals, the report said gold pulled back sharply after reaching a record high in late January 2026. Its weekly relative strength index fell to the lowest level seen since the current gold bull market began in September 2023, which the report said created conditions for a reversal.
For Bitcoin, BIT said the asset has already broken the descending trendline of the current bear cycle and reclaimed the 21-week moving average. Earlier cycle indicators also show Bitcoin is very close to a bottom, with August potentially serving as an important window to confirm the bottom for this cycle.
Macro Conditions Remain Central
BIT Research said three factors together form the main macro backdrop behind the recent breakouts in gold and Bitcoin: U.S. government debt surpassing $40 trillion, pressure on long-dated Treasury yields, and the Treasury’s expanded buybacks for longer-term government bonds.
The report added that policy intervention may temporarily relieve pressure on long-end yields, but it is unlikely to fundamentally reverse the strain created by debt supply and the broader pressure facing global fixed-income markets. In BIT’s view, that leaves room for the shift back into gold to continue, with the same logic gradually showing up in Bitcoin as well.
The next points to watch, the report said, are whether Bitcoin’s cycle bottom can be fully confirmed in August and whether policy responses to long-dated Treasury yields can continue to have an effect.
Part of the analysis above comes from BIT on Target. The full report is available by contacting BIT on Target.
Disclaimer: Markets involve risk, and investors should exercise caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve substantial risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made only after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. BIT does not accept responsibility for investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.