Bitcoin suffered a sharp selloff on Feb. 5, sliding from near $73,000 to around $62,000 during the session. The move wiped out more than $10,000 in a day. At 14%, it was Bitcoin’s largest single-day decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022.
Market sentiment dropped just as fast. The Fear and Greed Index fell into single digits, a reading seen only a handful of times across Bitcoin’s 17-year history. RSI, which tracks the speed and magnitude of price moves, also showed Bitcoin as the third most oversold it has ever been. The selloff was violent, and the sentiment readings reflected that immediately.
Loss-making supply climbed close to 10 million BTC
On-chain data moved toward levels associated with prior cycle lows. The amount of circulating supply sitting at a loss — coins that last moved at prices above the current market price — jumped to nearly 10 million BTC. That marks the fourth-highest reading on record and puts the market near conditions seen around the bear-market lows of 2015, 2019, and 2022.
A separate measure, the long-term holder supply that is now underwater, rose to 4.6 million BTC. In earlier bear-market bottoms, that figure moved above 5 million BTC. The comparison suggests the current reading is approaching prior extremes, though it has not fully matched them yet.
Profit and loss supply are now nearly balanced
Another notable shift is the narrowing gap between coins in profit and coins in loss. At present, about 10 million BTC are held in profit and roughly 10 million BTC are held at a loss. Historically, that kind of convergence has lined up with the late stage of major drawdowns.
The source notes that no one can say with certainty whether Bitcoin has already bottomed. Still, the historical pattern suggests the market may be getting close, especially with price rebounding toward $68,000. Traders may still look for a test of the 200-week moving average, which is currently near $58,011.