Bitcoin's comeback from February lows, which had started to resemble a new bull cycle, hit a wall at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) just above $82,000. Prices have since fallen back to $77,500, echoing 2022 when a 43% relief rally failed at the same indicator before the decline resumed.
Three Demand Pillars Crumble
CryptoQuant's latest report pins the rejection on a synchronized weakening of three supports: leveraged futures buying, spot demand, and US ETF inflows. The firm's Bull Score Index crashed from 40 to 20, a level it calls "extremely bearish," matching the February–March period when bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $66,000.
Coinbase Premium Stays Negative
The clearest cross-check is the Coinbase bitcoin premium, which remained negative through much of the May rally and the subsequent pullback, CryptoQuant notes. A positive premium signals stronger US demand; a negative one suggests American investors aren't paying up for exposure.
US ETFs Flip to Net Sellers
Spot bitcoin ETFs in the US shifted from buyers to sellers. Weekly data from SoSoValue shows the products lost about $979.7 million in the week ended May 19, on top of roughly $1 billion in outflows the prior week. That reverses six straight weeks of inflows that had fueled the rally.
Kimchi Premium Turns Negative
Asia offers no relief. Korea's kimchi premium, measuring BTC demand on local exchanges, has dropped below zero, per CryptoQuant. Hong Kong's three spot bitcoin ETFs—run by ChinaAMC, Bosera Hashkey, and Harvest—rarely cleared a few million dollars in combined daily volume through May.
Next Support at $70,000
If the correction deepens, CryptoQuant flags $70,000 as the next major on-chain support, matching the traders' realized price. That level capped rallies in October and January; this time it must hold prices up.