Bitcoin was not knocked down by macro headwinds on the final trading day of August. Escalation in the Iran situation pushed oil prices higher and weighed on equity index futures, while hawkish remarks from Waller lifted expectations for a September rate hike. Even so, BTC held around $78,000 during the Asian session, up more than 24% from its roughly $62,900 close at the end of July.
The market’s main focus is now the 50-week moving average, sitting near $81,000.
The $81,000 area is shaping up as the line between bulls and bears
Historically, when Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week moving average in 2015, 2019 and 2023, the bear market was largely over. But rallies in 2015, 2018 and 2022 also ran into heavy resistance in the same area before prices pulled back again. In that context, the zone above $80,000 is not being treated as ordinary resistance. It is the key battleground for this cycle.
Short-term trading views are fairly concentrated. Traders are watching $76,800 to $77,000 as the immediate support band. If that range holds, Bitcoin may have room to push again toward $79,000 to $80,000. If it breaks, price could slide back to around $75,500 or even $74,300. On the upside, resistance is clustered at $78,400 and $79,400 to $80,800. A more convincing breakout would require BTC to regain and hold $82,000 to $83,000.
Seasonality and technical signals are both feeding September caution
The market has begun to revisit a familiar question: after a strong August, does September have to be weak? Crypto Xlarge said Bitcoin has never posted a green September immediately after a green August. That does not guarantee a decline, but it does put seasonal pressure back in focus as price tests a historically important zone.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, compared the current setup with past cycles and said both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets saw rebounds of about 40% from summer lows before hitting resistance at the 50-week moving average, with prices then moving lower in the fourth quarter. He added that the market is currently in a midterm election year rather than the year before a halving, and in his view the real bottom has often not arrived until after the early-November election window. His takeaway: stay cautious.
Wealthmanager said weekly RSI remains in a weak zone similar to the setup before the 2022 breakdown. If history repeats, another pullback before a true low would not be surprising. Chain Mind also pointed to bearish divergence and said the structure would only turn clearly stronger on a break above $83,000.
Bulls are still in the trade
Not everyone is leaning defensive. Doctor Profit said Bitcoin has entered a “soft bull market,” with $71,000 as strong support and $78,500 as the main resistance level. A break there, he said, could open the way to $82,000. Aylo also took the bullish side, arguing that the four-year cycle should not be applied mechanically. Unless U.S. equities suffer a disastrous drop, a macro crisis emerges, or Bitcoin faces its own major black swan event, he said the current move looks more like post-bottom volatility.
Daniel YU, head of asset management at BIT, took a more balanced view. He said Bitcoin is facing a double challenge from seasonal weakness and technical resistance, with a dense supply wall between $81,000 and $86,000. He added that volatility may intensify in the window around the September CPI release and the Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Today’s watchlist: token unlocks, auctions, ETF flows and market movers
- This week’s calendar includes the final nonfarm payrolls report before the September FOMC meeting, while projects including HyENA and Cosmostation Wallet are ending services.
- Large token unlocks are due this week for HYPE, SUI and others, with HYPE alone valued at more than $36 million.
- Ethos will start its WHUF token auction on Sept. 1, with the tokenomics model confirmed to include no airdrop allocation.
- EigenCloud (EIGEN) is set to unlock about 36.82 million tokens, worth about $7.2 million.
- Upbit’s 24-hour trading volume ranking was XRP, SKR, TT, BTC and ZKC.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $924 million last week.
- Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $824 million last week.
- Spot SOL ETFs recorded net inflows of $154 million last week.
- Spot XRP ETFs recorded net inflows of $110 million last week.
- Spot HYPE ETFs recorded net inflows of $56.8551 million last week.
- Among the top 100 tokens by market cap, the largest gainers were XMR up 11.1%, MNT up 7.7%, LIT up 7.7%, UNI up 7.2% and CAKE up 6.3%.
U.S. equity futures stayed cautious as chip shares and crypto stocks tried to steady
Sentiment in U.S. overnight trading remained guarded. Dow futures fell 0.12%, Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.03% and S&P 500 futures lost 0.13%.
BIT overnight data showed semiconductors beginning to recover. The 3x long semiconductor product rose 3.01%, Nvidia gained 0.66%, AMD rose 0.91%, Intel added 1.36%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF advanced 1.00%. After the previous session’s sell-off, some buyers moved back into chip names at lower levels.
Crypto-linked names also posted a mild rebound in overnight trading, with Strategy up 1.23%. The report described that move as a technical bounce after a sharp drop, adding that its durability may depend on whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $79,000 to $80,000 range.
After Waller’s remarks, the AI trade rotated from chips toward cloud and software
On Friday, all three major U.S. indexes closed lower. The Dow slipped 0.02%, the S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.52%. Investors had still been trading around the AI demand story after Nvidia’s earnings, but Waller’s remarks brought rate concerns back to the front.
According to CICC, Waller was not simply signaling a September rate hike. The firm said he was trying to rebuild the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation credibility, and that a September hike remains a realistic possibility if incoming employment and inflation data do not show clear deterioration. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, said Waller is more focused on balance-sheet issues and that the Fed could begin quantitative tightening of more than $1.5 trillion next year, using “more balance-sheet reduction, less rate hiking” to lean against inflation.
Chip stocks took the brunt of the move. Nvidia closed down about 4.57%, AMD fell about 2.3%, Arm lost more than 6%, Applied Materials dropped more than 4%, and Marvell sank more than 10% after gross margin guidance missed expectations.
Cloud and software names moved the other way. Barclays said a large share of revenue earned by AI model companies is likely to turn into cloud spending, benefiting Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. That led investors to rethink the role of cloud providers as AI commercialization expands. Amazon rose nearly 4%, while Microsoft, Google, Meta and Apple also advanced. In software, Elastic jumped more than 19% after earnings, Workday gained nearly 6% and ServiceNow rose more than 4%.
Crypto-related equities and miners fell sharply
Crypto concept stocks broadly sold off. BIT U.S. stock data showed Strategy down 7.34%, Coinbase down 6.33%, Robinhood down 5.01%, Circle down 7.53% and Strategy preferred STRC down 0.68%.
Miners fell even more than BTC. The report said those names are exposed not only to coin prices but also to electricity costs, capital spending and valuation compression. Canaan fell 14.22%, American Bitcoin dropped 12.21%, IREN lost 12.53%, Marathon Digital slid 10.11%, CleanSpark fell 9.96%, Cipher Digital dropped 9.54%, Riot Platforms fell 9.05%, Bitdeer lost 8.91%, Hut 8 dropped 8.85% and Terawulf fell 6.91%.
Asia traded under pressure, then diverged
Asia-Pacific markets opened under pressure from higher global bond yields, a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks and revived rate-hike expectations. South Korea’s KOSPI at one point dropped more than 3%, but reversed to close up 0.46% after pension funds bought technology shares late in the session. The index was up about 3.4% for the month.
Roy Lim, an equity sales trader at Samsung Securities, said South Korean pension funds made visible purchases of KOSPI stocks during the last 20 minutes of trading, worth about KRW 120 billion and concentrated mainly in technology names. That buying marked the turning point from a deep intraday loss to a gain.
At the single-stock level, SK Hynix was down more than 4% at one point in the morning, while Samsung Electronics also came under pressure. Tighter regulation of single-stock leveraged ETFs in Korea continued to affect market structure. From July 31 to Aug. 28, retail investors were net sellers of KRW 1.773 trillion across 16 single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs linked to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Average daily trading value in those products during August dropped to about 8% of previous levels, and the retreat of leveraged money left leading chip names more volatile.
Japan faced a double squeeze. The Nikkei 225 closed down 0.14% after falling nearly 2% intraday in morning trading on the back of the global tech sell-off and rising bond yields. USD/JPY moved back above 160, and Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hit its highest level in decades, prompting rapid position cuts in high-valuation technology shares.
Japanese semiconductor names were hit hard. Advantest at one point dropped more than 7%, while Tokyo Electron and Renesas Electronics also fell. The concern, according to the report, was that the AI chip supply chain had risen too far and too fast and needed to digest valuations.
With the yen back through 160, markets again turned to the question of currency intervention. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the yen’s move was “under control” and unlike the earlier disorderly phase. He also said Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda would “do the right thing,” leaving traders focused on whether the BOJ could move toward another rate increase.
Mainland Chinese equities held up better. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.86%, the Shenzhen Component gained 0.44%, the ChiNext Index added 0.42% and the STAR 50 advanced 1.34%. China’s August manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 from 49.2. It remained below the 50 threshold, but the improvement at the margin supported sentiment.
The A-share market’s main themes were AI applications, liquid-cooled servers, short dramas and compute hardware. Short-drama film and television names rallied, with Shanghai Film, CMG Huachuang, Bona Film and Huanrui Century among those hitting their daily limit. China’s first fully AI-produced long-form drama, Later Journey to the West, began airing on Hunan TV and Mango TV, fueling expectations for AI content commercialization. Guojin Securities said the entry of AI content into mainstream long-form broadcasting is significant, though audience reception and repeatability remain the key variables.
Liquid-cooled server names extended gains, with Inspur Information, Jinfu Technology, Jindi Shares and Xinpeng Shares among those hitting limit up. According to CCTV Finance, the rollout of 10,000-GPU intelligent computing centers is accelerating, AI chip power consumption has moved above 1000W, and traditional air cooling is no longer sufficient. Liquid cooling is moving from an option to a necessity, with order books for related production lines already filled through the end of 2026 and even into 2027.
Hong Kong equities showed clear divergence, and large-model AI names were the main focus. MINIMAX at one point surged more than 17% after saying H3 Max 768P and 480P had been connected to its open platform and MiniMax Design. It also said a full 5-second 768p audio-video generation now takes less than 3 seconds, faster than playback. Huatai Securities said AI model commercialization could accelerate over the next four to six months and that MiniMax’s product rollout in the second half could drive revenue growth.
Zhipu rose nearly 10% ahead of its first interim results since listing and its formal inclusion in the MSCI China Index. The market is watching ARR, API calls, token processing volume and the company’s domestic compute support capacity.
China Literature gained more than 6% as the release schedule for Later Journey to the West boosted expectations for monetization in short dramas and AI comics. The company had previously disclosed that first-half revenue from short dramas and AI comics exceeded CNY 430 million, up 2.3 times year over year.
Hong Kong-listed mainland banks moved higher against the broader trend. Bank of China rose more than 5% to a record high, Postal Savings Bank of China climbed more than 7% after earnings, and Minsheng Bank, Bank of Communications and China Construction Bank also gained. The report said interim earnings from major state-owned banks showed across-the-board revenue growth and signs that net interest margins were stabilizing, while optimized property lending policy added to their appeal as a defensive refuge for capital.
Key dates ahead
Aug. 31, Monday
- At 9:20, 33 Chinese stocks including Zhipu are formally added to MSCI indexes. The report said index changes could trigger passive allocation flows and short-term portfolio rebalancing, with Zhipu likely to influence AI, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and new materials.
- The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting runs through Sept. 1, focusing on global inflation, exchange-rate volatility, debt risks, financial stability and sanctions on Iran. The report said U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent may push for coordination on secondary sanctions against Iran, with possible implications for crude oil, the dollar, U.S. Treasurys and emerging-market currencies. Any coordinated FX signal could also move the yen, USD/JPY and long-dated U.S. yields.
- Zhipu, Black Sesame Intelligence, Minglue Technology and Horizon Robotics are scheduled to report results, putting Hong Kong’s AI and intelligent driving supply chains into a concentrated testing window. For Zhipu, focus is on ARR, API call volume, token pricing and commercialization progress. For Horizon, attention is on smart-driving chip shipments, penetration of advanced driver-assistance solutions and valuation across the automotive AI chain.
Sept. 1, Tuesday
- Tim Cook will formally step down as Apple CEO, with John Ternus taking over. Cook will become executive chairman, while Ternus, currently senior vice president of hardware engineering, becomes CEO. Markets are watching whether Apple accelerates hardware innovation and AI device rollout under the new leadership, especially foldable iPhone plans, on-device AI, the new Siri and smart displays.
- A round of price increases in electronic components and materials will take effect, including adjustments for some Qualcomm products, Zhuoshengwei RF products, higher MLCC prices from Taiyo Yuden, price increases from Mitsubishi cutting tools, and a 20% to 25% increase in CCL and prepreg prices from Nan Ya Plastics. The report linked the move to rising upstream raw-material, capacity and supply-chain cost pressure. It said the impact could flow through communication chips, RF front-end, passive components, PCB and AI server board supply chains. If downstream customers absorb the increases, earnings expectations may improve; if not, hardware makers’ gross margins could come under pressure.
- The G20 technology ministers’ meeting runs through Sept. 2. Elon Musk, Jensen Huang and Sam Altman are among the participants. Discussions will center on global AI governance, digital-economy rules and the U.S.-backed light-touch AI framework known as the “Carolina Principles.” A looser regulatory tone could support AI platforms, model developers, cloud providers, chip names and compute infrastructure. Tighter regulation could pressure valuations for AI applications and large-model companies.
- Japan will auction 10-year and 30-year government bonds on Sept. 1 and Sept. 3. With the yen below 160 and long-end U.S. yields elevated, markets are watching whether domestic demand for Japanese bonds could divert capital away from overseas assets. Weak demand could push JGB yields higher and spill over into U.S. Treasurys and global growth-stock valuations. Solid demand could ease pressure on long-end rates globally.
- NIO is due to report before the U.S. market opens. The focus is on second-quarter deliveries, vehicle gross margin, narrowing losses, contributions from Onvo and Firefly, and third-quarter delivery guidance. The report said that if vehicle margin holds near 17% to 18% and management offers strong delivery guidance, sentiment toward Chinese EV stocks could improve. If margin is eroded by multi-brand expansion, pressure could return to NIO and related new-energy names.
- Baidu’s dual primary listing in Hong Kong and the U.S. will take effect. The report said the move should improve liquidity and financing flexibility in both markets, while extending the significance of Chinese ADRs returning to Hong Kong. Hong Kong tech stocks could benefit from index allocation, southbound inflows and international rebalancing.
- SHEIN and Mech-Mind Robotics will formally list in Hong Kong. The report said SHEIN’s first-day performance could influence valuations for consumer technology and cross-border e-commerce, while Mech-Mind Robotics could affect sentiment in robotics and machine vision.
Sept. 2, Wednesday
- Dell, Credo Technology, MongoDB and Palo Alto Networks are scheduled to report earnings. Dell will be watched for visibility on AI server orders and profit quality, Credo for demand for active cables in AI data centers, MongoDB for enterprise database migration to the cloud, and Palo Alto for cybersecurity spending under AI-driven threat conditions. Strong orders and guidance could extend momentum to AI infrastructure, networking gear, data cloud and cybersecurity.
- SEMICON Taiwan runs through Sept. 4 and will focus on advanced packaging, HBM, semiconductor equipment and materials. If the supply chain signals capacity expansion or technical progress, the report said it could support advanced packaging, memory, equipment, materials and TSMC suppliers.