Bitcoin has stuck in a narrow $59,000 to $60,000 range for the fifth consecutive session. According to Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, this quiet consolidation is riskier than it appears because of where it is happening — below the levels that sparked rebounds in early February and early this month, and beneath both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Both averages are sloping downward, signaling a bearish bias.
Dangerous Consolidation in a Downtrend
“This is a rather dangerous consolidation for the bulls,” Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk. He contrasted it with the 2024 consolidation that formed in a rising market, while the current one is forming in a falling market. If the pattern breaks to the downside, the next meaningful stop is near $40,000.
On-chain data echoes the caution. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost flagged signs that long-term holders are beginning to capitulate, i.e., selling at a loss. In past cycles, this phase has marked painful near-term moments but also potential entry points for buyers. Meanwhile, active addresses and transaction activity remain near the lower end of their recent ranges, reflecting persistently weak demand.
Strategy’s Shift from ‘Never Sell’ to Billion-Dollar Selling
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate bitcoin holder, saw its preferred stock STRC hit an all-time low near $71 last week, while its common stock fell 25% over the week to its lowest since February 2024. The company then announced it may sell more than $1 billion in bitcoin to shore up its finances — a dramatic departure from founder Michael Saylor's “never sell” mantra. The board authorized management to sell from the reserve at any time without separate approval for each transaction.
The prospect of a large seller looms over an already thin market. The macro backdrop offers little relief: the U.S. dollar has been strengthening, which typically weighs on bitcoin and other dollar-denominated assets.
As of writing, bitcoin is on track to end the second quarter with roughly a 13% loss. U.S. stocks, by contrast, are wrapping up one of their best quarters in years, buoyed by optimism around AI spending — the same rotation that has pulled capital away from crypto toward equities all month.