Current Market Positioning: $59K Is Not the Ultimate Bottom
Bitcoin is currently trading between $59,000 and $63,000, with market sentiment leaning bearish. However, both on-chain data and liquidity analysis indicate that this price level has not yet touched the cyclical bottom. Historical bear market endings show that the true bottom often occurs after a full liquidity flush, where the price breaks below key support—currently $59,000—triggering panic selling from holders and completing the final washout.
Combining On-Chain Data and Technical Analysis: Core Indicators for Bottom Detection
The analysis emphasizes that identifying the bottom requires more than just price charts; on-chain metrics are essential. Cointime Price, which reflects the average cost basis of long-term holders, still shows room for downside. The PSIP (Realized Price to Market Cap Ratio) indicates that overall market profitability is low but has not yet reached historical extremes. AVIV (Active Addresses to Total Addresses Ratio) reveals that on-chain activity remains depressed, consistent with typical bottom zones. Combining these on-chain indicators with technical liquidity analysis (order book depth and liquidation levels) provides a more accurate assessment of the bottom range.
Investment Strategy: Stick to Competence and Avoid Chasing Hype
In the late stage of a bear market, hot topics frequently emerge, but investors should exercise restraint. The article argues that instead of chasing short-term plays, investors should focus on their own circle of competence and wait for clear bottom confirmation signals before acting. Blindly chasing rallies could lead to larger losses during the final drop. The optimal strategy now is to maintain cash reserves and closely monitor shifts in on-chain indicators until multiple co-confirming signals of a bottom appear.