Bitcoin options positioning shifted notably as July drew to a close. On Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, the $60,000 bitcoin put had become the most popular trade by open interest. At the time of writing, the contract carried $1.17 billion in notional open interest.
Puts are commonly used to hedge against a drop in price. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 late last month, then recovered to above $63,000 in recent days. The article listed BTC at $63,664.30.
The lead strike moved from calls to puts
Until the previous day, the most crowded positions were the $70,000 and $72,000 call options. Each of those bullish strikes had built up to $2.5 billion in notional open interest.
That call buying came ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. Some traders were effectively betting that bitcoin would climb as high as $72,000 after the U.S. central bank announced its interest-rate decision.
That rally did not happen. The piece said the miss likely helped drive the closing of those trades during Friday’s 08:00 UTC expiry, which settled $10 billion worth of bitcoin and ether options.
After that expiry, notional open interest in the $70,000 call had dropped to $943 million, while the $72,000 call had fallen to $888 million. Both remain sizable positions, but each now sits below the $60,000 put.
Seasonality points to a weaker August
CoinDesk also highlighted a seasonal pattern. Since 2013, bitcoin has delivered a median return of 8.61% in July. According to CoinDesk data, the price rose 8.9% this month.
Historically, however, a positive July has often been followed by a negative August. Since 2013, the median August return has been -7.51%.
The article explained why median is the preferred measure in this context. Median shows the typical outcome without being skewed by unusually large gains or losses. In a market such as bitcoin, where a handful of extreme months can pull the average sharply higher or lower, median can offer a cleaner view of what has happened most often.
Based on those options flows and seasonal data, CoinDesk said the mood heading into August was bearish for BTC.
Chart note: the $60,000 put is now the top line
The chart referenced in the article showed the distribution of notional open interest in bitcoin options across strike prices and expiry dates.
Notional open interest refers to the dollar value of active contracts that remain open. One contract represents one BTC.
Using that measure, the $60,000 put moved into first place with $1.17 billion in open interest. The formerly leading $70,000 and $72,000 calls slipped down the rankings.
Other items listed in CoinDesk’s daily roundup
- CoinDesk: About 594 BTC, worth roughly $38 million, was swept from around 500 wallets in about 25 minutes on Friday in an attack traced to a flaw in how Coldcard hardware wallets generated keys.
- CNBC: U.S. Treasury yields moved lower with oil prices as crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of recovery and investors looked for easing tensions in the Middle East while waiting for fresh economic data.
- AP: South Korea’s Kospi rose nearly 18% on Friday, helped by a rebound in chipmaking stocks. U.S. stock index futures rose and oil prices fell.
Other headlines shown on the page
- Dubai-based crypto exchange tied to a $4 billion Iran sanctioned-evasion network, 5 minutes ago.
- World Cup bets smash records as prediction markets hit $20 billion in volume, 32 minutes ago.
- U.S. sanctions Iran-linked bitcoin insurance scheme for Strait of Hormuz ships, 34 minutes ago.
- Bitcoin and ether fall while equities rally, with the broader crypto market on track for its best month in a year, 1 hour ago.
- New York sues Kalshi, alleging it offers a gambling platform “plain and simple,” 2 hours ago.
- Quantum Solutions and Hyperscale Data tap crypto treasuries to fund AI data centers, 3 hours ago.
- Bitcoin’s calm returns, along with the setup for a volatility explosion, 4 hours ago.
- Live updates: Bitcoin slides back below $64,000 as the Nasdaq rally continues, 4 hours ago.
- Bitcoin holds near $64,000 as Kospi’s record 17% surge leaves crypto untouched, 6 hours ago.
- Major bitcoin wallet flaw drains $38 million worth of BTC in a 25-minute sweep, 7 hours ago.
Anvil: The Missing Collateral Layer
The page also included a brief description of Anvil, which it called a shared on-chain collateral layer built on a programmable letter of credit. The summary said reserve assets are used as a guarantee, with no loan, no interest, and custody and yield retained by the holder.