CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr projects Bitcoin will likely trade between $57,700 and $67,000 through August, with a 55% probability of a month-end close at $60,000-$64,000. BTC has pulled back roughly 50% from its October 2025 cycle high of $126,200 and now sits near the average on-chain cost basis, a zone that has historically attracted buyers. The bear case, assigned 30% probability, involves a breakdown below $57,700 toward the on-chain realized price of about $52,800. The bull case, at 15% odds, requires reclaiming $67,000 with support from continued spot ETF inflows, falling US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, targeting $71,000-$74,000. Support also comes from persistent net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and valuations anchored near cost-basis levels. However, high interest rates, elevated Treasury yields and dollar strength remain headwinds for risk assets. Adler also flags August US nonfarm payrolls, CPI and the Jackson Hole central bank symposium as macro events that could sway liquidity and break the range.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr published his Bitcoin market outlook for August, saying the cryptocurrency has pulled back about 50% from its October 2025 cycle high of $126,200 and now trades close to the average on-chain cost basis. In his view, that points to more sideways, rangebound trading in August rather than a breakout.
Three scenarios: sideways is the base case
The report assigns probabilities to three paths:
- Most likely (55%): BTC trades between $57,700 and $67,000, with a possible month-end close at $60,000-$64,000.
- Bearish (30%): a break below $57,700 opens a test of the on-chain realized price near $52,800.
- Bullish (15%): BTC reclaims $67,000, backed by continued spot ETF inflows, falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar. Targets sit at $71,000-$74,000.
Support vs. headwinds
Valuation at the on-chain cost basis and steady net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs give the market a floor. High interest rates, elevated US Treasury yields and dollar strength, meanwhile, keep a lid on risk assets.
The analyst also flagged August US nonfarm payrolls, CPI and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium as macro events that could shift liquidity conditions.
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