Bitcoin’s on-chain picture is flashing a rare combination. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost says the market may have entered the final stage of its bear cycle, with long-term holders now spending coins at a loss while the number of addresses sending BTC to exchanges has dropped to a 10-year low. That pairing closely resembles the late-bear structures seen in 2018 and 2022.
Long-term holders are now realizing losses
The LTH SOPR, which tracks whether long-term holders spend coins in profit or loss, is sitting at 0.96 on its 30-day moving average. Any reading below 1.0 means those holders are selling at a loss. The report noted that the yearly average remains positive at 1.71, but that figure reflects older data rather than the current market phase.
Darkfost said short-term holders have been under pressure for about six months, and that stress is now shifting toward long-term participants. In prior cycles, that kind of transition has shown up late in the drawdown. He also warned that the metric could still fall lower and remain there for several more months.
Exchange deposit activity has dropped to levels last seen around 2016
At the same time, selling intent on exchanges appears to be fading. According to CryptoQuant, the number of addresses actively sending Bitcoin to exchanges has fallen to its lowest point in a decade, reaching levels last seen around 2016. Because this metric tracks coins moving toward trading venues, it is often used as a direct gauge of near-term sell pressure.
As of April 8, total exchange reserves stood at 2.706 million BTC. The report also said monthly netflows have remained negative since February. Analyst CryptoTice argued that this makes the market especially risky for short positions, citing shrinking supply, returning ETF inflows, and long-term holders staying inactive.
The same setup appeared before sharp recoveries
Neither stressed holders nor weaker exchange activity is unusual on its own. Bear markets often produce both. What stands out here is that the two signals are showing up together, and in a pattern the report says closely matches the late stages of 2018 and 2022, periods that were followed by sharp Bitcoin rebounds.
The article stopped short of claiming history must repeat. It pointed instead to a familiar structure now forming on-chain. At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $72,212, up 7.82% over the week.