Bitcoin broke through the critical psychological support of $60,000 during intraday trading on Wednesday, momentarily dropping to $59,023 — the lowest level since October 2024, marking a fresh 20-month low. As of press time, BTC has recovered slightly to around $60,600, narrowing its 24-hour loss to approximately 3% and a seven-day decline of about 9%. This is the third time Bitcoin has fallen below the $60,000 round number this year, but unlike the previous two instances, this drop occurs amid persistent institutional capital outflows and a sharp shift in macroeconomic policy expectations, systematically undermining market confidence.
Spot ETFs Suffer Longest Net Outflow Streak in History
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have been the primary catalyst for the latest downturn. Since mid-May, ETFs have recorded net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with cumulative outflows of approximately $5.94 billion over 30 days — the largest institutional withdrawal wave since the products launched in January 2024. Notably, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net outflow of $528 million on May 28, a record since its inception. The total asset under management of Bitcoin ETFs has shrunk from roughly $113 billion at the start of the year to about $77.5 billion, losing more than a third of its value. According to The Block, ETFs still recorded a net outflow of approximately $113.8 million on June 23, indicating that the institutional withdrawal momentum has not yet materially reversed. Whether selling pressure from institutions eases in the coming weeks will be a crucial signal for the market.
The cyclical effect of ETF net outflows exacerbates the decline: when institutions redeem shares, authorized participants must sell the corresponding Bitcoin directly on the secondary market, creating persistent spot selling pressure. CoinShares labels the current situation as a “sentiment shock,” arguing that it does not represent a structural breakdown of crypto market fundamentals.
Macro Policy Outlook Shifts to Hawkish
The macro environment has also applied undeniable pressure on Bitcoin. U.S. job openings rose to 7.62 million in April, far exceeding market expectations and reaching the highest level in two years, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back above 4.45%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack subsequently signaled that if inflation remains elevated, the Fed may need to resume rate hikes. CME FedWatch data shows that the market now prices a more than 50% probability of a rate increase by year-end.
The strong bull market of 2025 was built on the liquidity expectation of “Fed rate cuts.” Now that rate-cut expectations have reversed and real interest rates are rising, institutional capital tends to shift to low-risk assets such as bonds and cash, leaving Bitcoin—a high-risk asset—particularly vulnerable. In the near term, market attention will focus on upcoming U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s next policy signals. If CPI data comes in lower than expected, Bitcoin may get a breathing window; if it confirms sticky inflation, downward pressure will continue to build. Until extreme panic subsides and a clear turning point in ETF flows emerges, whether Bitcoin can hold the $60,000 line will likely determine the next direction of this bear market.
