Bitcoin entered a downcycle after reaching an all-time high of about $126,000 in October 2025. On July 1, 2026, BTC fell to roughly $57,800, marking a maximum drawdown of around 54% from that peak. By July 14, it had recovered to near $62,000.
As the market searches for a bottom, institutions including Standard Chartered, Galaxy Research, CryptoQuant, NYDIG and 10x Research have published a series of price calls. Those views are not directly comparable. Some refer to a base-case cycle bottom, some point to key support levels, some describe bearish scenarios, and some are conditional targets that apply only if certain levels break.
Across currently public forecasts, institutional views are mainly concentrated in two zones: $50,000-$60,000 and $40,000-$46,000. KOL estimates are more dispersed and extend to below $30,000 in the most bearish cases.
Standard Chartered: $59,000 may have been the cycle low
On June 12, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said Bitcoin may already have formed a cycle bottom at about $59,000 and argued that the current “crypto winter” had ended.
Kendrick attributed the earlier decline to spot ETF outflows, weaker purchasing power from digital asset treasury companies such as Strategy, and a rotation of investor capital into AI-related assets. Standard Chartered at the time maintained its target of $100,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2026.
Bitcoin later dropped to about $57,800 on July 1, briefly moving below the bank’s $59,000 bottom call. The estimate was close to the actual low, but that alone does not confirm that the final bottom is already in place.
10x Research: from $55,000 down toward $50,000
On June 24, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said Bitcoin could form a low after falling to about $55,000. He said a stronger U.S. dollar, tighter liquidity and seasonal market factors could still weigh on BTC.
On July 1, 10x Research updated its Elliott Wave model. The firm had previously expected Bitcoin to complete wave A near $63,000, rebound into the $80,000-$90,000 region, and then fall in wave C toward about $50,000. The latest model pointed to a potential range of roughly $46,628 to $50,732.
That means 10x Research gradually revised its downside view from the original $55,000 call to around $50,000. At the same time, the firm said long-term allocation value would begin to emerge if Bitcoin fell below $55,000.
CryptoQuant: $53,600 may be an on-chain valuation floor
In a June report, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said Bitcoin had already entered an on-chain valuation zone, though demand remained weak and the market had not yet shown a full capitulation signal.
The report said Bitcoin’s realized price at the time was about $53,600. Realized price reflects the average cost at the last on-chain transfer of all BTC, and it has often been treated as an important valuation floor in bear markets.
CryptoQuant also used indicators including the MVRV Z-Score to identify $55,000-$60,000 as a key area to watch for a potential bottom. The firm added that a cycle low would require simultaneous improvement in spot demand, ETF flows and stablecoin liquidity.
Citi: $53,000 in a bearish scenario
On July 1, Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000, citing continued spot ETF outflows, stalled progress in U.S. crypto legislation and weakening investor demand.
Under a bearish scenario that assumes a recession and continued ETF outflows, Citi valued Bitcoin at about $53,000.
That $53,000 figure was not framed as Citi’s explicit cycle-bottom call. It was a 12-month bearish-case valuation built on assumptions of recession and persistent capital outflows.
NYDIG: $53,700 as a cost line, $37,900 in an extreme drawdown case
In a report published on June 5, NYDIG said Bitcoin was not far from historical bear-market bottom territory, but the evidence remained mixed and still fell short of confirming a final low.
The report identified the 1x MVRV level near $53,700 as an important cost line. At that level, Bitcoin’s market price is close to the network-wide average on-chain cost basis.
NYDIG also calculated that if Bitcoin were to decline about 70% from the $126,000 peak, the price would fall to about $37,900. That figure was presented as a stress scenario based on historical bear-market drawdowns, not as NYDIG’s base-case forecast.
Galaxy Research: base-case bottom at $40,000-$46,000
Galaxy Research has offered one of the clearer and lower base-case institutional views. In its June report, the firm said Bitcoin could form a cycle bottom in the $40,000-$46,000 range sometime between now and the fourth quarter of 2026.
Galaxy built a 13-indicator Bitcoin bottom-monitoring framework covering price drawdown, holder losses, realized price, miner stress, long-term holder behavior and market time-cycle factors. At the time of the report, only four indicators had fully triggered. In Galaxy’s reading, Bitcoin had entered the later stage of the bear market, but the decline and its duration might still be short of a full washout.
Galaxy therefore listed $40,000-$46,000 as its base-case bottom range, while warning that deeper tail risk could appear if macro conditions or digital asset treasury companies deteriorate further.
Bitfinex: $53,400 is structural support, $40,000 remains possible if demand stays weak
In its June 29 report, Bitfinex Alpha described realized price near $53,400 as an important structural support level for Bitcoin.
The report said Bitcoin could complete a bottoming process in that area if ETF outflows slowed and spot buying returned. If demand stayed weak, the market could slide further toward $40,000 in the fourth quarter.
After Bitcoin fell to about $57,800 on July 1 and then rebounded quickly, Bitfinex said in a follow-up report that the move may have been a false breakdown. Even so, it said there was still not enough evidence at the time to confirm that the final bottom had formed.
22V Research: a break below $60,000 could open a path to $40,000
John Roque, technical strategist at 22V Research, said Bitcoin was testing $60,000 as a first downside target. If that level were broken decisively, the price could extend lower toward $40,000.
That makes $40,000 a conditional technical target after a key support break, not an unconditional bottom forecast from 22V Research.
Other institutions: $31,000-$40,000 mostly belong to deep bear-market cases
In February, John Blank, chief equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said Bitcoin could drop to about $40,000 over the next six to eight months if the current crypto winter lasted 12 to 18 months. He based that view mainly on technical patterns, declining liquidity and historical bear-market cycles.
Stifel had previously set a potential target near $38,000. Ned Davis Research said Bitcoin could fall to about $31,000 if the market entered a full crypto winter. These figures are better understood as long-duration bear-market or deep-stress cases, not as a common institutional baseline for the current cycle.
Strategy and Metaplanet: no explicit bottom call, but treasury actions remain a market variable
Strategy and Metaplanet have not given clear Bitcoin bottom targets, but their treasury behavior remains an important variable in institutional assessments of demand.
Michael Saylor said roughly $4 billion in recent Bitcoin ETF outflows reflected capital rotation into AI rather than impairment in Bitcoin itself. In his view, volatility still creates opportunity.
Strategy, however, has started managing its balance sheet with more flexibility. From June 29 to July 5, the company sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million, mainly to pay preferred-share distributions. In the latest week, it did not buy or sell BTC, and instead raised about $467 million through common-stock sales, increasing its U.S. dollar reserves to about $3 billion. At the time of disclosure, Strategy held 843,775 BTC.
Metaplanet has kept its long-term plan to expand BTC reserves, targeting holdings of 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026 and 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027. The stance of both companies fits long-term treasury allocation rather than short-term bottom forecasting.
KOL views: from $57,000 to below $30,000
Outside institutions, on-chain analysts, traders and industry figures have also offered a wide range of bottom calls.
Michael Terpin said in April that Bitcoin had not yet reached its final low and could fall to about $57,000 around October. The July 1 low near $57,800 came close to that call, though it still does not settle whether the ultimate bottom has been seen.
Bitget CEO Gracy Chen said in June that $59,000 was the first support worth watching, and that the next important area would sit at $48,000-$52,000 if that level failed. Biteye summarized her bottom view as roughly $50,000.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo used traditional on-chain models including CVDD in March to place a potential bottom range at $46,000-$54,000. The CVDD floor at that time was about $45,500 and would gradually rise over time. He also warned that those models had only been tested across four full bear markets, so actual prices could fall further if macro conditions worsened sharply.
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Litecoin Pool, said Bitcoin could fall to $42,000-$44,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026. He based that view on the ratio between Strategy’s market value and Bitcoin net asset value, combined with the four-year cycle and the pattern of declining Bitcoin volatility across cycles.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin could fall to about $40,000 over the next six months. He has used options structures to hedge downside risk, while also saying he remains net long Bitcoin over the long term. His $40,000 view is a medium-term risk call, not a long-term bearish target.
KOL WolfyXBT said he was still waiting for $35,000 Bitcoin, reflecting a more pessimistic stance among some traders on the scale of the pullback.
According to a Biteye compilation, crypto investor Tony Ling expects Bitcoin to enter the $30,000-$40,000 region in the fourth quarter of 2026 and said the market could later face pressure from a prolonged Nasdaq bear market and the bursting of an AI bubble. As the full original post has not been located, that view should remain attributed specifically to Biteye’s compilation.
Technical analyst Tony Severino has kept a long-term target of about $34,500, equivalent to a drawdown of roughly 72% from Bitcoin’s all-time high. He expects the cycle low could arrive around October.
Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone offered the most bearish view in this roundup. He said Bitcoin could still fall to $10,000 in an extreme case if it fails to reclaim $75,000. That is McGlone’s personal analytical view, not a formal institutional forecast from Bloomberg, and it is not the market’s mainstream expectation at this stage.
No broad consensus has formed around $44,000-$46,000
Looking across these forecasts, the current evidence does not support the claim that institutions broadly agree the cycle bottom sits in the $44,000-$46,000 range.
Standard Chartered sees $59,000 as a possible cycle low already in place. CryptoQuant, NYDIG, Citi and 10x Research cluster mainly around $50,000-$55,000. Galaxy Research, Bitfinex and Arthur Hayes place a deeper risk zone in the $40,000-$46,000 area. Forecasts below $40,000 are mostly tied to assumptions of a deep bear market, a macro recession or continued deterioration in technical structure.
The split is not just about different models. It also reflects different assumptions about the macro backdrop ahead. Whether spot ETFs can return to net inflows, whether digital asset treasury companies such as Strategy continue selling BTC, how Federal Reserve policy and the U.S. dollar evolve, and whether investors keep rotating capital into AI assets could all affect where the final bottom is set.
For now, $40,000-$46,000 can be described as a closely watched second layer of support and a base-case bottom range for some institutions. It cannot be described as a unified market consensus.