Bitcoin briefly climbed above $80,000 on May 4 — a level not seen since late January — before quickly facing resistance and pulling back. The move came as U.S. stock markets rallied on strong earnings from trillion-dollar tech giants, with BTC catching up after a slight delay.
BTC Correlation with Equities Resurges; ETF Flows Support
QCP analysts commented: “This move looks synchronized with equities and marks a resurgence in BTC’s correlation with US stocks to near 2023 levels, signaling a broader reconnect with risk assets overall.” The surge occurred just as Strategy paused its buying activity, renewing hopes in support strength. Spot ETF inflows totaled roughly $163 million last week, indicating persistent institutional demand. “Despite notable outflows between April 27 and 29 — most likely tied to month-end rebalancing and switch-ups in basis trades — Friday’s hefty $630 million inflow more than offset previous redemptions,” QCP Capital noted. The firm added that while ETF flows and Strategy accumulation still play a supportive role, they are no longer the sole drivers: “The key question now is whether we’re beginning to see broader institutional involvement emerging as a lasting force.”
Technical Hurdle: CME Gap at $82K–$83K
QCP stressed that Bitcoin needs to close the CME gap at the $82,000–$83,000 range to stabilize and rebuild upward momentum. Surpassing this technical barrier would be an early bullish signal. Despite a string of recent long liquidations, BTC hovering near $80,000 has surprised investors, but analysts cautioned it’s still too soon to celebrate. The VIX index remains consolidated around 17, indicating subdued volatility, though major announcements can still quickly move the charts.
Key Risk Events This Week
This week sees the release of crucial U.S. employment data — including JOLTS, ADP, and NFP numbers — as well as earnings from major crypto firms such as Strategy, Coinbase, and Block. Any surprises could spark new volatility. QCP concluded that while global equities paint a more stable picture, crypto remains highly susceptible to sudden moves, with charts primed for unexpected developments.