According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV, the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has shifted to an "early bull" signal for the first time since March 2023. Historically, this signal has marked the end of major market corrections, such as in early 2019 and early 2023. However, the current signal in May 2026 is less definitive, with other market indicators showing weakness.
Historical Significance
The early bull signal appeared only a few times in the past and often preceded significant price rallies. For instance, after the signal in early 2019, Bitcoin surged from around $3,000 to $14,000. Similarly, early 2023 saw a rally of over 100%. Yet, the analyst warns that this time may be different.
Current Market Picture
MorenoDV notes that Bitcoin's 30-day moving average suggests improving momentum, but overall market conditions remain uncertain. Other on-chain indicators, such as long-term holder supply and exchange inflows, do not provide a clear bullish signal. Without further price confirmation, the signal could indicate a local top rather than the start of a new bull market.
Risks and Uncertainty
Market sentiment is currently divided. Some traders believe Bitcoin is entering a new upward cycle, while others worry about macroeconomic headwinds like interest rate policy. CryptoQuant's "ancient supply" stagnation indicator shows that long-term holders are extremely reluctant to sell, potentially signaling a solid bottom. Nevertheless, short-term movements remain unpredictable.
Conclusion: While the early bull signal is encouraging, investors should remain cautious and wait for further confirmation before making aggressive moves. Chasing the peak could lead to significant drawdowns.