Bitcoin may be at the start of a new bull cycle, according to a TechFlowPost market analysis citing Anthony J. Pompliano, founder and CEO of ProCap Financial. The article says Bitcoin has disappointed many investors over the past year, dropping more than 50% from its $125,000 all-time high, but argues that several indicators now point to a reversal and a stronger return outlook over the next 18 to 24 months.
Mining electricity cost band and RSI have bottomed together before
The first chart, attributed to Quinten Francois, focuses on the relationship between Bitcoin’s mining electricity cost and the Relative Strength Index, or RSI. The article says the two have often bottomed at the same time in prior cycles.
On the weekly chart, the mining electricity cost band is shown in purple. RSI is used as a momentum gauge. The piece highlights three instances — 2019, 2022, and 2026 — when Bitcoin revisited the cost band while RSI also bottomed. Historically, the article says, that signal has often been followed by a bull market move.
Pompliano’s takeaway is straightforward: if that historical pattern repeats, it would be a strong sign that a new bull run is beginning.
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has climbed to a record high
The second signal comes from Bitcoin’s relationship with gold. Will Clemente said Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is now at an all-time high. The article links that development to recent comments from Scott Bessent, who pledged to expand government fiscal spending, helping revive trades built around currency debasement.
A Glassnode chart cited in the piece shows Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold surging to a record level in 2026. In the article’s framing, that means both assets are being traded in close sync and are increasingly treated as hedges against currency debasement.
Pompliano restated a familiar Bitcoin argument in the article, writing that Bitcoin has no price ceiling because the U.S. dollar has no floor on value. The piece also notes that U.S. national debt has topped $40 trillion and says the government continues to erode the dollar’s purchasing power.
Bitcoin and M2 have diverged again
The third chart examines Bitcoin against broad money supply M2. The article says Bitcoin has historically moved in line with M2, but that relationship has broken down recently: M2 has kept expanding while Bitcoin’s price has fallen.
According to the piece, some market participants have stopped using the indicator because of that disconnect. Pompliano argues the opposite. He says large divergences have appeared before, and when the gap later narrows, the adjustment has usually come from Bitcoin moving higher rather than M2 slowing down.
In the weekly chart, Bitcoin is shown in green and M2 in orange. The article points to two major divergences. After Bitcoin’s sharp decline in 2022, the price later caught up as M2 kept rising. A second divergence appeared in 2026, with Bitcoin underperforming money supply growth. On that basis, the article says history suggests Bitcoin could close the gap through an upside move.
R89 Capital sees a bullish setup on the 4-hour chart
The fourth chart comes from R89 Capital. Pompliano says he does not usually rely on simple trendline analysis alone to predict portfolio moves, but he describes this setup as compelling.
The 4-hour Bitcoin chart shows price rebounding from the bottom of a key consolidation range and forming an ascending channel. R89 Capital reads that pattern as bullish and expects Bitcoin to push toward $90,000. The article says that setup could support gains over the coming weeks and possibly months.
Most annual returns come from a small number of sharp up days
The fifth chart shifts from timing to holding. Jeff John Robert shared a Bloomberg chart and wrote: 「Bitcoin’s investment logic has become similar to that of the S&P 500. The vast majority of returns come from a small number of major rebound days. If you sell and leave the market now, then miss those windows, the investment result will be very poor. This Bloomberg chart compares Bitcoin’s annual returns with and without the 10 biggest up days included.」
The article says the chart compares Bitcoin’s full-year returns with returns after stripping out the 10 biggest up days of each year. The point is that a large share of Bitcoin’s performance comes from only a handful of explosive sessions, which makes frequent market timing especially risky.
Pompliano’s conclusion on this cycle
The article closes by arguing that this Bitcoin bear market has been shorter and less severe than previous cycles. Pompliano says investors should stop fixating on the past because a new bull market has already arrived, and he believes Bitcoin will appreciate sharply from current levels.
At the same time, the piece says volatility is likely to remain intense and may not suit investors with low risk tolerance. Its final point is that those who understand Bitcoin and hold through major swings are more likely to capture the bulk of the upside.
