Bitcoin has surged more than 160% against the U.S. dollar over the past six months, fueling a fresh wave of debate over where the market stands in the current cycle and when this bull run could eventually peak. While sentiment is broadly bullish, analysts remain divided on how much upside is still ahead and how reliable cycle-based forecasting really is.
Onchain indicators suggest the rally may still have room
On March 12, lookintobitcoin.com founder Philip Swift shared bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score at 2.82 on X, arguing that the metric offers useful context for judging how far the market has progressed through the current bull cycle. In his view, the reading suggests there is still “a long way to go,” implying that the broader upward phase may only now be gaining stronger momentum.
As bitcoin pushed into record territory this year, bullish projections accelerated as well. Options markets have seen attention around the $100,000 level, while onchain analyst Willy Woo described the latest move as merely a “warm-up.” Together, these views reflect a market environment in which optimism has become dominant.
Halving history and cycle compression shape forecasts
Crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital approached the question from a historical-cycle perspective. He noted that bitcoin has typically peaked 518 to 546 days after a halving. However, he also argued that the current cycle appears to be advancing faster than prior ones by roughly 260 days, raising the possibility that the usual cycle duration could be cut significantly.
Using another framework, Rekt Capital suggested that if the bull market peak is measured from the moment bitcoin breaks above its previous all-time high, the top could arrive 266 to 315 days after that breakout. Since bitcoin moved into new all-time high territory last week in this cycle, that accelerated timeline would place a possible peak around December 2024 to February 2025.
Bullish sentiment is strong, but precise timing remains difficult
Analysts including Rekt Capital, Plan B, Willy Woo, and Philip Swift are all using different combinations of onchain metrics, price models, and historical patterns to estimate where the market may be headed. Even so, identifying the exact start of the bull run—or its eventual endpoint—remains highly uncertain.
For now, the stronger consensus is that bitcoin may not have reached the final stage of this cycle yet. Still, measures such as MVRV Z-Score, post-halving timing, and breakout-based models can only provide probabilistic ranges rather than certainty. As expectations continue to build, the limits of these indicators may prove just as important as their signals.