CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin remains in a clearly defined correction channel, with price still trading below both the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, which continue to act as resistance. He noted that a bearish crossover between the 21-day and 200-day moving averages in early November quickly confirmed the broader pullback trend, while the 200-day moving average is still sitting well above $72,930. In his view, the first constructive signal would be a renewed bullish crossover in which the 21-day moving average moves back above the 200-day line. On momentum, Darkfost said RSI has remained weak and has repeatedly failed to reclaim 50, though a bullish divergence has appeared on the daily chart and weekly RSI has entered a reset phase. From an Elliott Wave perspective, he said wave C is still unfolding. A short-term rebound could reach around $68,000, but another downward leg may still be needed to complete the correction pattern. He placed the wave C target in the $57,000 to $54,000 range, while adding that a stronger wave (4) rebound to $68,000 or higher could allow the correction to end at a higher level.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin is still trading inside a well-defined correction channel, with price remaining below the 21-day and 50-day moving averages. Those two lines are still acting as resistance.
According to his post, a death cross between the 21-day and 200-day moving averages formed in early November, quickly confirming the correction trend. The 200-day moving average is still well above $72,930, and he said the first positive signal would be a renewed crossover with the 21-day average moving back above the 200-day line.
On momentum, Darkfost said the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, has stayed weak. Multiple attempts to hold above 50 have failed. Even so, a bullish divergence has already appeared on the daily chart, while weekly RSI has also entered a reset phase, suggesting medium- to long-term momentum may gradually recover.
Using Elliott Wave analysis, he said wave C is still in progress. A short-term rebound could reach around $68,000, but another downward leg would still be needed before the full correction structure is complete.
Darkfost put the wave C target in the $57,000 to $54,000 range, with the final level depending on the degree of capitulation that gets triggered. If wave (4) rebounds to $68,000 or above, he said wave C could also end at a higher level.
He added that the correction pattern appears to be nearing its final stage, with divergence starting to form and RSI going through a reset. Even so, he expects the full structure to take several more weeks to complete and said one more modest decline may still occur.
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