Bitcoin has fallen from its $126,000 all-time high to around $67,000, a drawdown of nearly 50%. A market analysis article published by CryptoComLearn argues that if this cycle follows Bitcoin’s previous major corrections, the price could move toward the $40,000 area by November 2026.
The article bases that case on Bitcoin’s history of steep retracements after major tops. It points to a 93% decline in 2011 after a run from $1 to $30, an 85% drop in 2015 from $1,100 to $150 after the Mt. Gox collapse, an 84% decline in 2018 from $20,000 to around $3,100, and a 77% fall in 2022 from $69,000 to roughly $16,000.
Historical correction ranges form the basis of the $40K view
Using that framework, the article says a correction of about 70% from the current cycle’s $126,000 peak would place Bitcoin near $40,000. The piece treats the current slide as part of a larger post-peak reset rather than a completed move, noting that Bitcoin has often posted severe retracements after setting fresh highs.
It also notes that Bitcoin reached this cycle’s record high in October 2025 and remains well below that level. From the author’s perspective, the combination of a 50% decline already in place and Bitcoin’s past cycle behavior leaves room for a deeper move, though the article presents this as a scenario built on historical patterns rather than a certainty.
Market psychology model is used to map the current stage
The article also refers to the Wall Street Cheat Sheet market psychology model. In that reading, Bitcoin hit $126,000 during the “Euphoria” phase. It then moved through “Complacency” and “Anxiety,” with the pullback to about $97,620 in January 2026 still viewed by many participants as a normal correction.
According to the piece, the market is now entering the “Anger” and early “Depression” phases, where fear, frustration, and heavy selling pressure become dominant. Based on prior cycles, the article says this part of the psychological sequence has often appeared close to a final bottom, which is why it ties a possible move toward $40,000 near November 2026 to the current setup.
The 2024 halving cycle could disrupt the historical pattern
The article also includes a counterpoint. Bitcoin’s halving cycle could weaken the bearish historical comparison. It states that Bitcoin has typically peaked 12 to 18 months after each halving as supply tightens and demand rises.
Since the latest Bitcoin halving took place in 2024, the article says the market could enter a stronger rally phase by mid-2026. If that pattern holds, the projected drop toward $40,000 may not occur. In that sense, the article presents a wide 2026 range, from about $40,000 in a deep correction scenario to above $100,000 if post-halving demand strengthens.