Bitcoin's market narrative has shifted from “whether to invest” to “how much and through what vehicle,” according to David Puell, research trading analyst and associate portfolio manager for digital assets at Ark Invest. Speaking to CoinDesk, Puell highlighted that the 2024 approval of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, combined with the rapid rise of digital asset treasury (DAT) strategies, has pushed bitcoin past an important institutional maturity threshold.
ETFs and DATs Absorb 12% of Supply
Puell said that spot ETFs and DAT companies together have absorbed roughly 12% of bitcoin's total supply, far exceeding earlier expectations. This absorption has become one of the biggest price drivers through 2025 and likely into 2026. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) dominate ETF flows, collectively pulling in over $50 billion in net inflows in about 18 months.
“In prior cycles, a lot of the infrastructure was still being built. Now the question is no longer if you invest in bitcoin, but how much bitcoin you want and through what vehicle,” Puell said. He noted that ETFs and DAT structures allow institutions to gain bitcoin exposure without self-custody, lowering compliance barriers.
Early Adopters vs. Institutions: A Battleground
Puell also pointed out a countervailing force: long-term holders who bought bitcoin more than a decade ago are increasingly willing to take profits at new highs. “In bull markets, early adopters will profit-take more aggressively toward the top. In bear markets, they tend to hold on,” he said. The two competing forces—early adopters selling versus institutions buying via ETFs and DATs—played out through 2025 and created volatility.
2030 Price Targets: Bear $300K, Base $710K, Bull $1.5M
Despite the tug-of-war, Ark Invest maintains its long-term valuation framework. The firm's published model projects a bear case of ~$300,000, a base case near $710,000, and a bull case of ~$1.5 million per bitcoin by 2030. Puell added that institutional allocation ratios and ETF liquidity depth will be key variables in reaching those targets.