Bitcoin gets macro support, but the chart still says no
Bitcoin was trading at $64,938, up 1.06% or $683 on the session, after a U.S. jobs report that came in well below expectations. Employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, the first net loss since the pandemic-era recovery, compared with economists' forecast for a gain of 95,000.
The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%, but only because more people left the labor force. June payroll growth was also revised down to 20,000 from 57,000, while May was cut nearly in half.
Markets took the report as a sign the Federal Reserve may stay on hold. Treasury yields fell, the dollar dropped 0.5%, and CME FedWatch showed the odds of a September rate hike sliding to 40% from 55% a day earlier.
That kind of backdrop usually helps risk assets and crypto. Bitcoin, though, has not confirmed the move.
The death cross is still there
The broader setup remains weak. Bitcoin topped near $80,000 in mid-May, then rolled over into a clean spring downtrend and hit a July low around $58,000. The 50-day EMA remains below the 200-day EMA, a formation traders call a death cross.
That matters because it shows the medium-term trend is still pointing lower. Since the July low, the decline has flattened into a sideways coil, but price has yet to reclaim either moving average.
Momentum is neutral
The Relative Strength Index reads 54.6. On the 0 to 100 scale, RSI above 70 is considered overbought and below 30 oversold. At 54.6, momentum is neutral.
That leaves Bitcoin without much fuel for a breakout and without the kind of washout that often marks a durable bottom.
What would change the picture
A bullish case would start with a daily close back above the 50-day EMA and the $66,000 round-number resistance. That could open a run toward the 200-day EMA around $64,000 and the cloud top near $72,000.
Fundamentally, a softer Fed and a weaker dollar give the rally a reason to try. But the price has failed to reclaim the 50-day line through the entire coil, so the case is thin.
The bearish setup is clearer. A break below $60,000, which lines up with the cloud floor and a round-number magnet, would confirm that sellers still control the structure and point back to the July low at $58,000. A daily close below that level would reopen the spring downtrend.
Prediction markets are still leaning lower
On Myriad, the prediction market built by Decrypt parent company Dastan, traders are pricing nearly 65% odds that Bitcoin falls to $55,000 before it climbs to $84,000. That view has barely changed over the past week.
For now, $65,000 is the line in the sand. Above the 50-day EMA, the July range looks like base building. Below $60,000, it looks like a bear flag.
The jobs report gave Bitcoin room to rally. The death cross says it has not earned that move yet.