Bitcoin2026-10-01 17:11:44Bitcoin Opens October at $83,823 as 'Uptober' Trade Faces Rate PressureBitcoin entered October at $83,823.14, up 0.28% on the day, after finishing September with a 6.33% gain. The month had briefly been on track to become Bitcoin’s strongest September on record, reaching a 7.33% gain with one trading day left before a late correction erased that milestone. Even so, the move kept September in positive territory and broke with the market’s long-running “Red September” narrative. Historical seasonality still gives traders a reason to watch October closely. CoinGlass data shows crypto investors have seen average October returns of 19.92% and median returns of 14.71% since 2013. But the macro backdrop looks less friendly this time. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 16 to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since July 2023, while the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields ended September at 5.289% and 5.632%, both 52-week highs. Bitcoin ETF flows have also started to soften after a strong run. Funds took in about $3.08 billion across nine straight days through Sept. 29, but the streak ended with $148.69 million in net outflows on Sept. 30. Decrypt’s parent company Dastan’s prediction market, Myriad, shows traders assigning 90% odds to Bitcoin reaching $85,000 and 70% odds to $87,500, while only 7% see a new all-time high before 2027.20
Decrypt2026-09-30 16:37:36Decrypt launches The Information Exchange on Solana with Myriad and MYRDecrypt has announced The Information Exchange, a new information and financial network built on Solana and powered by Myriad and the MYR token. According to the announcement, the platform is designed to combine news, data, market prices, probability information, and direct participation tools in one network. Myriad will support products including prediction markets, spot markets, perpetual futures, and structured event products, while also connecting to third-party protocols and exchange offerings. The MYR token will be used to stake for network functions and to access resources such as APIs and market data. Decrypt said the rollout will happen in phases over the coming weeks, with the full launch scheduled to be completed before Solana Breakpoint.00
Bitcoin2026-09-30 15:50:25Bitcoin Rises After Softer PCE Data, but Treasury Yields Keep Pressure on Risk AssetsBitcoin climbed after U.S. inflation data came in below expectations, briefly pushing above $85,000 before giving back part of the move. The August Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core PCE increased 0.2% on the month and 3.0% annually. All four readings were below economist forecasts cited by Decrypt. The data shifted rate expectations for October. CME FedWatch showed a 62% probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged and a 37% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Even so, the broader macro backdrop remained tense: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached about 5.25%, its highest level since 2002, while the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all slipped. Brent crude also stayed elevated after briefly topping $100 earlier in the week. Decrypt also pointed to cautious positioning on Myriad, the prediction market built by its parent company Dastan. Traders assigned only 7% odds that Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high before 2027, using Binance’s previous record of $126,199.63 as the target. On the chart, trend and momentum indicators still leaned bullish, but Bitcoin remained capped below the $85,599 area that has limited price action throughout the week.00
Bitcoin2026-09-21 15:45:35Bitcoin Returns to an Eight-Month High as Traders Look to the Next MoveBitcoin climbed as high as $86,332 on Monday, its highest level in eight months and the first time the market has seen that price since January. The move extended a rebound that began near $62,000 on August 17 and pushed BTC back above $80,000 within a month. Even after that run, Bitcoin remains more than 30% below its record above $126,000 from October 2025, while its year-to-date loss has narrowed to less than 3%. Liquidation data shows how much of the rally was driven by short positions getting wiped out. CoinGlass recorded $877.31 million in crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours, with $740.79 million, or about 84%, coming from shorts. More than 126,000 accounts were liquidated, and the largest single order was an $11.29 million BTC/USDT position on Binance. Bitcoin alone accounted for $491.48 million of the total, while Ethereum added $195.11 million. The article points to lower oil prices, a pullback in the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.9%, and several major events over the next three weeks as key factors to watch. Those include a planned September 24 meeting in New York between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on September 30, the September jobs report on October 2, and CPI data on October 14. Meanwhile, Myriad traders are pricing in 50% odds that Bitcoin reaches $90,000 by month-end and 28% odds that it touches $92,500.460
Brent crude2026-09-09 15:30:45Brent tops $100 as Polymarket odds of WTI hitting $100 this month rise to 59%Brent crude climbed to $101.09 on Wednesday morning, up 3.2% on the day and back above $100 for the first time in six weeks, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $96.27. The move came as oil markets repriced after a series of military events in the region. Saudi officials said Houthi forces attacked Saudi oil facilities early Tuesday, injuring 73 people. On the same day, U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian oil tankers after striking three on Saturday, in response to an Iranian ballistic missile attack on a U.S. warship. Prediction markets moved with the rally. On Myriad, the market on whether crude will hit $120 before falling to $55 priced the $120 outcome at 56.5%, up 15.1 percentage points from early September, with trading volume reaching $12.7 million since March. Polymarket showed a 59% chance that WTI reaches $100 this month, up 9 points, and a 30% chance of $105, up 25 points. Odds of WTI falling to $85 this month dropped to 39%, down 33 points, while all levels below $85 were below 10%; the probability of $55 stood at 1%. U.S. diesel prices rose to $5.94 a gallon on Wednesday, and average gasoline prices were $4.22.850
Oil2026-09-09 15:15:01Prediction markets swing toward higher oil prices as Brent tops $100Brent crude rose to $101.09 on Wednesday morning, up 3.2% on the day and back above the $100 mark for the first time in six weeks, while West Texas Intermediate traded at $96.27. The move quickly fed through to prediction markets, where traders sharply repriced contracts tied to higher crude targets after a fresh round of geopolitical escalation. Saudi officials said Houthi rebels struck Saudi oil facilities early Tuesday, injuring 73 people. The same day, U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian oil tankers after hitting three more on Saturday, describing the strikes as a response to Iranian ballistic missile attacks on an American warship. On Myriad, odds that crude reaches $120 before falling to $55 climbed to 56.5%, while Polymarket traders pushed the probability of WTI touching $100 this month to 59%. Lower-price scenarios lost ground across the board, and diesel prices also moved higher, reaching a record $5.94 a gallon on Wednesday.330
Bitcoin2026-08-28 21:16:04Bitcoin Pulls Back After Warsh Speech, While Longer-Term Bets Stay BullishBitcoin slid as low as $76,877 on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said in his first Jackson Hole keynote that inflation is not cooling quickly enough. The move erased most of the week’s double-digit gain and followed an overnight push to $81,455, a level inside a resistance zone that has stopped several breakout attempts this year. Markets read the speech as hawkish even though Warsh offered no fresh rate guidance. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed September rate-hike odds rising to 55.7% from 35.4% a day earlier. The shift hit leveraged crypto positions hard. CoinGlass recorded about $481 million in liquidations across the market in the 24 hours around the speech, including more than $360 million in longs, while Bitcoin closed at $77,557, down 3.39%. Even so, the technical picture in the article points more to consolidation than reversal, with RSI at 69.7 and ADX near 39.5. Longer-term sentiment also remains constructive: Myriad’s BTC market now prices a 77% chance of a move to $84,000 versus 23% for a drop to $55,000, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $2.8 billion over eight straight inflow days through Wednesday.930
Bitcoin2026-08-21 10:26:00Bitcoin Hits $71,556, but Prediction Markets Still Show a Split OutlookBitcoin climbed to $71,556 on Thursday, up 3.26% on the day and its highest level since June 1, extending what the report described as its strongest rebound in five months. Even so, traders in prediction markets have not moved to a fully bullish stance. On Myriad, odds recently flipped from favoring a drop to $55,000 to a narrow 52% versus 48% split in favor of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 first. Polymarket’s year-end contract still prices a 56% chance that BTC touches $55,000 before moving higher, while Kalshi traders had assigned only a 31% chance of Bitcoin breaking $70,000 in August, even though that level has already been cleared. The report says short-term positioning has been squeezed by the rally, but longer-dated contracts have barely shifted. Analysts cited $70,284 as a key level to watch. A daily close above it could open room toward $73,245, while a move back below $68,000 could send Bitcoin into the range that has contained it since June.1140
