Bitcoin traded at $71,556 on Thursday, up 3.26% on the day and at its highest level since June 1, as the rally stretched into what the report described as the strongest rebound in five months. Even with spot prices pushing higher, traders in prediction markets are still not fully convinced.
The move extends recent momentum in Bitcoin. The previous session delivered its biggest one-day gain since March 4, and the price climbed to its highest point since June 1. Sentiment in the broader market has improved, but markets built around price wagers are still showing caution.
Myriad odds have flipped, but only barely
Prediction markets convert trader positioning into live odds. On Myriad, a market operated by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt, traders were still assigning roughly a 70% chance just a few days ago that Bitcoin would fall to $55,000.
By Wednesday afternoon, that setup had shifted. The latest odds showed the bullish side, betting Bitcoin reaches $84,000 first, at about 52%, versus 48% for the bearish side betting on $55,000 first. The balance has turned, but only narrowly, leaving the market close to a coin flip rather than signaling strong conviction.
Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the path differently
That hesitation is also visible across platforms. In Polymarket’s flagship 2026 price market, traders were pricing a 56% chance that BTC touches $55,000 this year, while the probability of reaching $75,000 stood at 51%.
Kalshi showed a similarly restrained view. Traders there assigned a 54% chance that Bitcoin would break $67,500 in August and only a 31% chance that it would move above $70,000. Both thresholds, however, were already cleared during Wednesday’s rebound.
Another Polymarket contract showed a 47% chance that Bitcoin rises above $75,000 in August, with about $12 million in trading volume.
Short-term markets were squeezed, while year-end pricing barely moved
The report says short-dated positioning was squeezed by the rally, while contracts tied to year-end outcomes moved very little by comparison. As more traders use prediction markets to hedge real positions, trading volumes on those venues have continued to hit record highs.
In that context, the reversal in Myriad odds may say less about a clean directional call and more about which side of the market was caught off guard by the sudden move higher.
$70,284 is the level in focus
Analysts cited $70,284 as the next key line for Bitcoin traders. That price marks the lower edge of a resistance band on the chart. A daily close above it could open a path toward $73,245.
If Bitcoin loses $68,000 instead, the report says it could fall back into the range that has held it in place since June. It also noted that this narrowing wedge pattern appeared before selloffs in October 2025 and January 2026.
Myriad settles on price, not on a calendar date
Unlike contracts with a fixed expiry date, the Myriad market in question does not settle on a calendar schedule. It resolves the moment Binance BTC/USDT spot hits either $84,000 or $55,000.
For now, Myriad’s live odds imply a 52% bullish probability. After two strong days for Bitcoin, that still leaves the prediction market’s message at no more than cautious optimism.