Brent crude traded at $101.09 on Wednesday morning, up 3.2% on the day and above $100 for the first time in six weeks. West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, stood at $96.27. As oil moved higher, prediction market traders shifted hard in the same direction.
Escalation over the past several days reset pricing
The move followed a stretch of rising tensions. Saudi officials said Houthi rebels attacked Saudi oil facilities early Tuesday, wounding 73 people. On the same day, U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian oil tankers after striking three others on Saturday. The U.S. action was described as a response to Iranian ballistic missile attacks on an American warship.
Myriad traders moved toward the $120 outcome
On Myriad, the question is whether crude reaches $120 or falls to $55 first. The $120 side is now priced at 56.5%, up 15.1 points.
Since mid-August, the two sides had traded within a few points of each other, with $55 leading for most of that period. They crossed at the start of September and have not crossed back. The market has recorded $12.7 million in volume since March.
The article also disclosed that Myriad is a prediction market owned by Dastan, Decrypt’s parent company.
Polymarket showed a sharper repricing
On Polymarket, a series of September WTI price targets repriced across the board.
- WTI touching $100 this month was at 59%, up 9 points.
- WTI reaching $105 was at 30%, up 25 points.
- WTI reaching $90 stood at 71%, up 21 points.
The downside weakened sharply. The market for WTI dropping to $85 fell 33 points to 39%, and every lower rung slipped into single digits.
The $55 line shows the gap between the two platforms’ structures. Myriad still prices $55 at 44.8% as an eventual outcome, while Polymarket puts WTI at just 1% to hit $55 this month. The products ask different questions: Myriad runs until one target is hit, with no deadline, while Polymarket closes at the end of September.
Fuel prices also moved up
Pump prices followed the crude move. Diesel hit a record $5.94 a gallon on Wednesday, surpassing the previous high set last week. Gasoline averaged $4.22 a gallon, weeks before midterm elections in which Republicans were already struggling to campaign on affordability.