Bitcoin moved higher after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, briefly trading above $85,000 before easing back, even as Treasury yields stayed near multi-decade highs and U.S. equities slipped.
According to Decrypt, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 0.3% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier, below economist expectations of 0.4% and 3.7%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% on the month and 3.0% year over year, also below forecasts of 0.3% and 3.3%.
PCE data reshapes the October rate debate
Bitcoin reacted by climbing to an intraday high of $85,598.94 before pulling back to $84,376.09. Decrypt said the total crypto market capitalization was up 0.6%, sitting just below $3 trillion.
The inflation print changed how markets are looking at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. CME’s FedWatch tool showed a 62% chance that the Fed holds rates in October and a 37% chance of a 25-basis-point increase.
Decrypt noted that bets on another hike had already been fading. Higher rates raise borrowing costs across the economy and usually support the dollar while making cash and government bonds more attractive. Lower rates tend to support liquidity, which can send more money toward assets such as Bitcoin.
That cooling, however, is only relative. Core inflation at 3.0% remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Bond yields remain the bigger macro problem
The bond market did not offer relief. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached around 5.25% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2002.
Stocks were weaker at the same time. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,670.84, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%. Brent crude briefly moved above $100 on Monday before easing to $96.16, with Decrypt linking the move to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Other macro data also pointed to strain. Consumer confidence fell to a 12-year low, and August job openings came in at 7.08 million, below forecasts.
Prediction market traders are still cautious on a new all-time high
Despite Bitcoin’s resilience, traders on Myriad were not pricing in an imminent breakout. Myriad is a prediction market built by Dastan, Decrypt’s parent company.
The market asking when Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high uses Binance’s previous record of $126,199.63 as the benchmark. The odds of that happening before 2027 stood at just 7%. Decrypt added that Bitcoin would need to rise about 50% in three months to get there.
Nearer-term pricing was less conservative. Traders were assigning 49% odds that Bitcoin stays above $84,000 in the near term and 21% odds that it rises above $86,000 by Monday.
Price action: a sharp move, then a pause
The daily candle opened at $83,624.30, reached $85,598.94, and then corrected to $84,376.09, leaving Bitcoin up $751.62, or 0.9%, on the day.
Decrypt described that as a breather after a near-vertical advance. Bitcoin fell below $75,000 in mid-September, then surged after what the report called the biggest ETF inflow day of 2026 on September 21. A wave of short liquidations then pushed the price to $87,354, its highest level since January.
Over the past week, Bitcoin has traded in a relatively tight range between roughly $82,600 and $85,600.
Technical indicators still favor bulls, but resistance holds
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, measures trend strength regardless of direction. Readings above 25 are generally taken as confirmation of a real trend. Bitcoin’s ADX was 41.9, which Decrypt described as strong, with the positive directional line above the negative one, indicating that buyers remain in control.
There is a limitation. ADX is a lagging indicator, so it can stay elevated after a sharp move even if price starts moving sideways. Decrypt said that is what Bitcoin is doing now.
Exponential moving averages also remained supportive. The 50-day EMA stood at $77,809.88, above the 200-day EMA at $74,423.93. Traders usually read that setup as bullish. The chart’s EMA ribbon also flipped from red to green in September after Bitcoin spent June through mid-August below the 200-day average.
At current levels, Bitcoin is trading about 8% above the 50-day EMA. Decrypt said traders often look for a retest of that average before the next leg higher when the gap becomes stretched.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, was 63.4 on a 0-100 scale. Readings above 70 are commonly treated as overbought, while readings below 30 are considered oversold. At 63.4, buyers still have control, but the indicator does not yet suggest exhaustion.
Overall, the technical setup leaned bullish on both trend and momentum, but Bitcoin was still stalling below $85,599. Decrypt said traders would want to see daily closes above that level, and ideally above $87,354, while ADX remains above 25.
Inflation fears ease, but no breakout yet
Decrypt’s conclusion was straightforward: the inflation scare is off the table for now, but the bond market problem remains. The post-PCE rally stalled at $85,599, the same ceiling that has capped Bitcoin throughout the week.
Softer inflation data gave bulls a catalyst. It did not deliver a breakout.