Brent crude climbed to $101.09 on Wednesday morning, up 3.2% on the day and back above $100 for the first time in six weeks, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $96.27. The move came as oil markets repriced after a series of military events in the region. Saudi officials said Houthi forces attacked Saudi oil facilities early Tuesday, injuring 73 people. On the same day, U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian oil tankers after striking three on Saturday, in response to an Iranian ballistic missile attack on a U.S. warship. Prediction markets moved with the rally. On Myriad, the market on whether crude will hit $120 before falling to $55 priced the $120 outcome at 56.5%, up 15.1 percentage points from early September, with trading volume reaching $12.7 million since March. Polymarket showed a 59% chance that WTI reaches $100 this month, up 9 points, and a 30% chance of $105, up 25 points. Odds of WTI falling to $85 this month dropped to 39%, down 33 points, while all levels below $85 were below 10%; the probability of $55 stood at 1%. U.S. diesel prices rose to $5.94 a gallon on Wednesday, and average gasoline prices were $4.22.
Brent crude traded at $101.09 on Wednesday morning, up 3.2% on the day and above $100 for the first time in six weeks. West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, was at $96.27.
Oil market reprices after regional escalation
Saudi officials said Houthi forces attacked Saudi oil facilities early Tuesday, injuring 73 people. On the same day, U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, after hitting three on Saturday in response to an Iranian ballistic missile strike on a U.S. warship. Oil markets repriced after the events escalated.
Prediction markets shift toward higher price targets
On Myriad, a market on whether crude will reach $120 before dropping to $55 put the probability of the $120 outcome at 56.5%, up 15.1 percentage points from early September. Trading volume in that market has reached $12.7 million since March.
Polymarket data showed a 59% chance that WTI hits $100 this month, up 9 percentage points. The probability of WTI reaching $105 this month rose to 30%, up 25 percentage points.
In the same Polymarket market, the probability of WTI falling to $85 this month dropped to 39%, down 33 percentage points from the previous reading. The probability for every level below $85 was under 10%, and the odds of $55 stood at 1%.
U.S. refined fuel prices move higher
U.S. diesel prices rose to $5.94 per gallon on Wednesday, setting a new high above last week’s level. Average gasoline prices were $4.22 per gallon.
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