BlockBeats reported on Sept. 30 that a stronger U.S. dollar is usually seen as a negative factor for Bitcoin and other dollar-denominated assets such as gold. The dollar serves as the world’s main reserve currency and a key unit for debt pricing, so when it appreciates, repayment costs rise for borrowers carrying dollar debt. That dynamic often leads to lower exposure to risk assets.
The U.S. Dollar Index has gained about 2.6% since Sept. 9 and touched 101.69 on Tuesday, the highest level in two months. Over roughly the same stretch, Bitcoin fell back from nearly $87,500 on Sept. 21 to the $83,000 to $84,000 range. Even so, the analysis said dollar strength may only be placing limited pressure on Bitcoin for now, rather than fully dictating its direction.
Negative correlation exists, but its explanatory power is limited
According to TradingView data, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index on a daily basis over the past 90 trading days stood at -0.41, the lowest reading since February 2023. That suggests the two have tended to move in opposite directions.
Still, the corresponding coefficient of determination was only 0.17. In practical terms, that means the dollar index explained only about 17% of the fluctuations in Bitcoin’s daily returns.
The 30-day reading was skewed by two unusual trading sessions
The 30-day correlation coefficient was -0.45, but the report said that figure was heavily shaped by two specific sessions on Aug. 19 and Sept. 3. On both days, Bitcoin rose more than 5% while the dollar index declined.
When those two days are excluded, the correlation drops to -0.19, pointing to a much weaker short-term inverse relationship.
Longer-term data also shows a weak relationship
Looking over a longer time frame, the average 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the dollar index since January 2020 was only -0.14. The figure also turned positive at one stage, rising to +0.22 in November 2024.
Bitcoin also has not shown a significant correlation with U.S. Treasury yields, the report said, indicating that its price action is more often driven by factors specific to Bitcoin itself.
Dollar index still faces a technical resistance level
On the technical side, the U.S. Dollar Index has moved back above the Ichimoku cloud, but it has not yet broken through resistance at 101.80. If that level is cleared, the move could end the sideways range that has held since May 2025 and lead to faster upside, according to the analysis.