Bitcoin has entered a more fragile stretch of the cycle. Since its all-time high on October 6, 2025, the asset has lost nearly 50% of its value. The source says the decline points to more than a routine pullback, linking the move to broader economic strain and weakness across tech stocks and other risk assets.
aSOPR remains in a historical stress zone
On-chain data adds to that picture. Bitcoin Adjusted SOPR, or aSOPR, is now sitting in the 0.92 to 0.94 range. Woominkyu described the reading plainly: aSOPR below 1 means coins are being spent at a loss. Similar levels in 2019 and 2023 appeared during heavy correction phases, when holders realized losses into market weakness.
The distinction matters. In mid-cycle pullbacks, aSOPR often recovers above 1.0 relatively quickly, but the current reading has stayed below that threshold, which suggests selling pressure has not cleared. Based on the source material, if aSOPR does not move back above 1.0 soon, the market may be dealing with more than a standard correction and could be moving through a broader structural reset.
Nexo data shows lending activity is still active
Even with sharp price swings, crypto credit use has not faded in step with the market. According to Nexo, total credit borrowed between January 2025 and January 2026 reached close to $1 billion, specifically $863 million. More than 30% of borrowers also came back for repeat use.
That repeat behavior suggests crypto borrowing is becoming a recurring financial tool for part of the user base rather than a one-off trade tied only to bullish conditions. The source frames this as a sign of trust in the platform and as evidence that crypto financial services are seeing routine use.
Price weakness and adoption are moving on separate tracks
The market picture is not one-dimensional. Bitcoin is under pressure, and on-chain data shows holders are still spending coins at a loss. At the same time, borrowing and repayment patterns remain intact. One side reflects stress in pricing and risk appetite. The other shows that crypto infrastructure and lending services are still being used.
In the source’s view, that split points to a market that is maturing beyond pure speculation. Whether Bitcoin is already entering a fuller bear phase may depend on whether aSOPR can reclaim 1.0 and when the current wave of loss realization finally runs out.