CoinDesk said in its Aug. 18 Daybook that bitcoin is now trading against a far more complicated macro backdrop, with energy markets sending signals that could feed back into inflation, rates and risk assets.
Earlier this week, CoinDesk reported that Goldman Sachs was downplaying the chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September, citing slower inflation and reflecting dovish expectations among traders. That view had offered a potential tailwind for bitcoin.
Fresh data have made that setup less clear.
Diesel crack spread hits a record
The first point highlighted in the report was the gap between diesel prices and the cost of the crude oil used to produce it. That gap, known in the market as the crack spread, has surged to a record $102.20 a barrel.
According to CoinDesk, the wars in Iran and Ukraine are disrupting global oil supply at the same time that seasonal demand is peaking because farmers need fuel to run tractors and harvest crops. The report said that has direct implications for inflation in the broader economy.
Hormuz Letter, a widely followed X account focused on Middle East and commodities news, wrote: 「Food is about to get a lot more expensive. Agriculture runs on diesel equipment and shipping, heating oil is next ahead of winter, and everything moved by truck or ship will drive inflation higher.」
Macro writer Mike “Mish” Shedlock framed the issue in even starker terms, writing: 「Record high crack spreads. Serious economic ramifications.」
CoinDesk’s reading was that even though oil prices have retreated from their second-quarter highs, refined products are becoming more expensive. The broader market, including BTC, may not have fully priced that in.
WTI crude breaks a four-month downtrend
The second point was crude itself. CoinDesk said oil may be due for a bounce. WTI crude has emerged from a four-month bearish trend and moved above a trendline drawn from the April high.
In the report’s framing, that breakout means the downtrend has ended and prices could rise again. If the move holds, inflation fears could return and cap gains in bitcoin.
CoinDesk also noted that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, adding another factor that could support crude prices.
Higher bond yields raise the cost of holding bitcoin
Those energy effects, together with concerns about government debt levels, are continuing to push yields on U.S. Treasuries and other advanced-economy bonds higher, CoinDesk said. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding other assets, a dynamic that can restrain bitcoin. The publication said it had flagged that relationship recently.
The message from the report was that inflation risk coming from energy markets and pressure from higher bond yields are now working at the same time against risk assets.
A weaker dollar still offers support
One factor is still leaning in bitcoin’s favor, at least for now: the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index fell to 99.29 on Monday, its lowest level in two and a half months, and broke below a bullish trendline. CoinDesk described that as a technical signal pointing to further weakness ahead.
A softer dollar has historically been a supportive backdrop for bitcoin.
Put together, CoinDesk said the market is sending a genuinely mixed tape, with bitcoin caught between narratives pulling in opposite directions: support from a weaker dollar, pressure from energy-driven inflation risk, and tighter conditions signaled by higher bond yields.
What CoinDesk listed as trending
In the “What’s trending” section, the publication pointed to several market stories carrying through the day.
- CNBC reported that global government bond yields hit multi-decade highs on Tuesday as hopes for an end to hostilities in the Middle East faded quickly, triggering a broad selloff in sovereign debt and driving borrowing costs higher.
- Another CoinDesk story said $57,000 is a key level for bitcoin traders holding bullish futures positions because leveraged bulls could come under pressure there.
- CoinDesk also said XRP fell below the closely watched $1 level to 98 cents on Tuesday morning in Asia, its lowest price since November 2024, even as Ripple announced its third Korean partnership of the year.
The report added that the chart showed daily swings in WTI crude oil in candlestick format. Prices have moved above the trendline drawn from the April high, which had represented the four-month downtrend. In CoinDesk’s interpretation, that breakout suggests the downtrend is over and prices may rise again, reviving inflation fears and limiting bitcoin’s upside if the move continues.
Other items listed on the page
- South Korea joins more than 30 jurisdictions restricting access to Polymarket, posted 28 minutes ago.
- Bitcoin pauses at $64,000 as rising yields and oil drag equities lower, posted 55 minutes ago.
- Bitcoin scores a rare win over the S&P 500 with a 2.6% rise versus a 0.5% fall, posted 1 hour ago.
- Live updates say bitcoin is holding $64,000 as surging yields and oil drain risk appetite, posted 3 hours ago.
- The story on the bitcoin level where leveraged bulls could get hit was posted 5 hours ago.
- The XRP move below $1 and the Korean bank adoption of Ripple Payments were also listed from 5 hours ago.
- Monad, an Ethereum rival, offered early investors up to $60 million to cash out, and almost all said no, posted 6 hours ago.
- Bitcoin climbs above $64,000 while most major tokens slip, posted 7 hours ago.
- Kraken parent Payward joins Anthropic’s Project Glasswing for an AI security push, posted 13 hours ago.
- Saylor says a share buyback is not a priority as Strategy builds a $4.8 billion cash reserve, posted 16 hours ago.
Zcash Tachyon feature appeared at the bottom of the page
CoinDesk also surfaced a separate item titled “Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness.” The page description said Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security and governance can hold. The input includes the line “Why it matters:” but does not show the rest of that section.