Bitcoin was lower on Oct. 7, and other major cryptocurrencies were down as well. Pull back from the day-to-day tape, though, and the market has gone almost nowhere over the past two weeks.
That choppy stretch may still fit a typical stair-step rally, according to observers cited by CoinDesk in its Daybook newsletter excerpt. In that view, the market has paused rather than rolled over, and the next question is what would be needed to push BTC through $87,000.
CoinDesk’s answer was direct: the same force that helped drive September’s surge, namely large inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
September’s rally was backed by ETF inflows
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $2.6 billion in September. Of that total, about $2.39 billion came in the week ended Sept. 25 alone. Daily inflows peaked at nearly $999 million on Sept. 21.
That pace has faded since then. CoinDesk said the funds drew $241 million last week and only $28 million so far this week.
Oliver Carding, head of marketing at Tesseract Group, said in an email that the current move suggests the ETF bid that carried September has not yet returned strongly enough to offset renewed macro pressure. He added that inflows above roughly $300 million a session for several sessions, a threshold he described as his own rather than a market standard, would be an important signal that institutional demand is coming back.
Market participants are watching both daily bursts and longer-term flow size
Martin Lee, head of content and data insights at DWF Labs, said large daily inflows matter more than long streaks of positive sessions that add up to only a few hundred million dollars.
He said that across the year, 93 of 190 trading days, or 48%, had been negative while the market still recorded net inflows of $1.2 billion. In his view, the size of flows over a week or a month matters more than the daily reading, which he said has been close to a coin flip this year, though still worth monitoring as the situation develops.
Taken together, those comments point to the same issue: the market is not just looking for positive ETF prints, but for inflows large enough to change the tone of the range.
Other buyers are still accumulating on weakness
CoinDesk also said accumulation has not been limited to ETF buyers.
Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, said investors appear to be using periods of weakness to accumulate and dollar-cost average alongside institutional buyers. He added that many market participants continue to target bitcoin at $100,000 and above.
That leaves the market with two forces in view at once: softer ETF demand than in late September, and continued buying interest during pullbacks.
Macro pressure remains part of the setup
In its “What’s trending” section, CoinDesk highlighted several developments shaping the broader market backdrop.
- CoinDesk reported that wallets supposedly linked to the U.S. government moved 833.599 BTC, worth about $71.6 million, to two addresses that Arkham does not label. A separate government-labeled wallet sent about 40,285 BNB, worth $31.63 million, to another unlabeled address. The report said a sale has not been confirmed.
- Another CoinDesk item said bitcoin slipped about 1.5% to just above $84,200 during Wednesday Asian morning hours as oil rose on stepped-up Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar.
- CoinDesk also noted that the Cardano Foundation launched a token standard allowing issuers of stablecoins, funds and bonds to decide who can receive their assets and to freeze or seize holdings when rules require it.
- Reuters reported that the U.S. dollar edged higher as oil climbed and investors waited for Federal Reserve meeting minutes and comments from policymakers for signals on a possible rate hike. The euro gave back some gains, while the yen weakened.
Placed together, those items show that bitcoin’s short-term path is still being shaped by macro markets as much as by crypto-native flows.
ETH/BTC ratio breaks below the Ichimoku Cloud
CoinDesk also described a chart of the Binance-listed ether-bitcoin ratio in daily candlestick format with the Ichimoku Cloud overlaid. The momentum indicator was invented by a Japanese journalist in the 1960s.
The ratio has crossed below the cloud, which the report described as a bearish shift in momentum. If that breakdown holds, ether’s uptrend against bitcoin would be over.
Immediate support sits at the yellow line drawn from the Sept. 4 low of 0.03059. A break below that level would add confirmation to the bearish view.
Other live items listed by CoinDesk
The page also carried a live-updates list with the following headlines and timestamps:
- BitMine announces ETH buying limit. Ether, bitcoin slide — 25 minutes ago.
- Bitcoin’s recovery stalls just short of rescuing its last underwater cohort — 57 minutes ago.
- Liquidations jump to $547 million as oil rally hits crypto market — 1 hour ago.
- Rain is seeking a national trust bank charter to bypass third-party banks — 2 hours ago.
- Robinhood adds bitcoin worth $25 million to its balance sheet — 2 hours ago.
- Down but not out. Bitcoin’s stair-step bullish trajectory is still intact — 3 hours ago.
- U.S. government moves over $100 million in BTC and BNB. A sale hasn’t been confirmed — 5 hours ago.
- Pudgy Penguins’ Abstract becomes second Ethereum layer 2 to shut in a week — 7 hours ago.
- Cardano gives token issuers power to freeze, seize and restrict assets — 7 hours ago.
- Bitcoin dips below $84,000 as oil jumps on Iranian tanker attacks — 7 hours ago.
Stablecoin report focuses on Asia Pacific
At the end of the page, CoinDesk pointed to a report titled The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific. The outlet said APAC is becoming a key proving ground as stablecoins move into regulated finance, and that the report maps the region’s rules, use cases and RLUSD’s role.