Bitcoin spot ETFs have suffered nearly $5.75 billion in net outflows since mid-May, fueling speculation that institutions are selling crypto to free up cash for the highly anticipated SpaceX (SPCX) IPO. The selling pressure pushed bitcoin to a 2026 low below $60,000 in the first week of June, more than 50% below its all-time high of ~$125,000 last October.
Arbitrage unwind thesis emerges
Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Swiss digital asset bank Sygnum, is not convinced by the IPO rotation narrative. "The ETF outflows are real, but the data does not truly support the hypothesis that bitcoin would be bleeding because of the SpaceX IPO," he told CoinDesk.
Dori argues that if investors were systematically selling bitcoin to raise IPO allocation cash, exchange balances would show unusual outflow patterns and stablecoin market cap would shrink as capital exits crypto. Neither is happening: exchange flows remain broadly normal, stablecoin supply barely contracted, and higher-risk crypto products still attract inflows — unlikely in a full asset-class abandonment.
Derivatives data offers strongest counter-evidence
Perhaps the strongest argument against the IPO rotation theory comes from derivatives. Dori notes that the decline in CME bitcoin futures open interest coincides with ETF redemptions, suggesting a significant portion of outflows may be linked to unwinding of cash-and-carry arbitrage trades rather than reallocation toward equities.
Cash-and-carry is a popular institutional strategy: buy spot (often via ETF) and short bitcoin futures to capture the premium spread. When the premium narrows or funding turns less attractive, traders unwind by selling spot and covering shorts — generating ETF outflows even if they are not bearish on bitcoin itself. The arbitrage opportunity simply became less profitable.
In short, the $5.75B outflow appears more about arbitrage unwinds than long-term investors fleeing. This also explains why exchange balances and stablecoin supply stayed calm despite price pressure. The market narrative may need a reset from "IPO rotation" to "arbitrage unwinding."