Bitcoin Exchange Inflow Surges: 50% Higher Than February Sell-Off
According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, the current Bitcoin market correction has intensified significantly. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. notes that the 30-day average inflow to exchanges has climbed to 122,000 BTC, far exceeding the annual baseline of 82,000 BTC and approximately 50% higher than the average of about 80,000 BTC seen during the February sell-off. This metric is approaching the upper threshold of 131,000 BTC, indicating rapidly accumulating selling pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has fallen from the February range of $77,000–$78,000 to around $59,000, a decline of roughly 24%.
SOPR Drops Below 1: Market in Loss Realization Mode
The 30-day moving average of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen to 0.99, persistently below the breakeven level of 1. This means the average seller is realizing a loss. Notably, between May and July, SOPR was below 1 for 37 out of 61 days, indicating that loss-making sales have become the norm. When SOPR is below 1, sellers are generally underwater, which typically exacerbates downward price pressure.
Combined Indicators: Correction More Severe Than February
Adler emphasizes that the current downturn is not a short-lived stress event but an ongoing selling process. The combination of soaring exchange inflows and SOPR staying below 1 makes this correction more pronounced in both intensity and duration than the February sell-off. During February, the average exchange inflow was around 80,000 BTC, and SOPR remained below 1 only briefly. In contrast, both indicators have deteriorated more significantly now.
Signals for Stabilization and Key Risks
For the market to truly stabilize, the analyst states that two signals must appear simultaneously: First, SOPR must recover above 1, meaning sellers are no longer losing money. Second, exchange inflows must fall back to the annual normal level (below ~82,000 BTC). The main risk is that if large volumes of Bitcoin continue to flow into exchanges, supply pressure will persist and market sentiment will struggle to improve. Without these two conditions, Bitcoin's price may face further downside.