Bitcoin is exhibiting unexpected resilience against a persistently bearish macro backdrop and global instability. On-chain analyst GugaOnChain points to low exchange deposit volumes as confirmation that selling pressure has largely exhausted. On March 3, only 28,235 BTC flowed into exchanges—well below the 40,000 BTC threshold. Historical cycle highs saw inflows ranging from 97,587 to 134,619 BTC, while cycle lows ranged from 13,994 to 58,584 BTC. The current reading suggests a significant drop in spot market selling, which historically precedes market bottoms.
Geopolitical Stress Fails to Break Price
Recent military tensions in Iran pushed WTI crude to $75 and Brent to $82, adding pressure to an already bearish macro environment. Yet Bitcoin holds at $68,637, with technical levels nearing the accumulation zone. GugaOnChain noted: “Although global instability and the bear market are expected to persist, the low volume of deposits into exchanges validates the exhaustion of selling pressure in Bitcoin.”
Momentum Oscillator Turns Positive, Short-Term Strength Builds
Another key signal: the 90-Day Market vs Realized Price Gradient Oscillator rebounded from -3.22 to +0.07, flipping positive. Analyst RugaResearch emphasized: “Each time this oscillator recovered from extreme negatives back to positive, the market was already rebuilding underneath.” The indicator measures the rate of change between market price and realized price, showing buyers regaining control. Bitcoin now trades 25% above its realized price of $54.5K, boosting short-term strength. However, the 365-day SMA remains at -0.22, indicating cautious long-term momentum—recovery confirmation is still pending. Still, the rapid shift from -3.22 to +0.07 reveals that selling pressure is exhausted and the market is tilting toward accumulation.