Bitcoin traded at $64,502 on July 29, up 1.70% over the past 24 hours and down 1.99% for the last seven days. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler said Bitcoin exchange activity remained neutral, with no clear signal yet that selling pressure was building on exchanges.
Exchange inflows stayed near historical lows
Adler pointed to two headline numbers. Over the past 30 days, about 60,000 BTC moved onto exchanges, roughly 24% below the average seen over the previous year and close to historical lows. Over the same period, exchange netflow was around negative 1,300 BTC, holding close to the zero line.
That matters because inflows are treated as a leading indicator of potential spot selling supply. If coins are not being moved onto exchanges, they are less available for immediate sale. Netflow staying close to zero also suggests there has been no major stockpiling of coins on exchanges and no broad wave of withdrawals that would sharply shrink exchange balances.
The report said this neutral reading can be misread as a sign that market risk has passed. It argued the interpretation is too simple. Bitcoin did fall 1.99% over the past seven days, but over 30 days it was up 7.55%, reflecting a rebound after the late-June low. On a longer time frame, the article said Bitcoin was down 45.77% over the past year and still 48.84% below the $126,080 peak recorded in October 2025.
Stablecoin data showed buyers stepping back
Adler also referenced stablecoin data that the article described as central to understanding the current neutral market structure. While Bitcoin exchange inflows were running 24% below the annual average, stablecoin inflows to exchanges were even weaker, at 31% below that benchmark.
The combined market capitalization of USDT and USDC was shrinking by about $3 billion per month, according to the report. Total supply had fallen 4.4% from a peak of $321 billion. By late July, stablecoins had recorded 35 consecutive days of net outflows from exchanges.
"When more stablecoins enter the market, purchasing power grows. When supply contracts, demand weakens as well," Adler said.
Put together, the figures suggest the market is not sitting in a strong balance between buyers and sellers. Selling pressure has not increased, but buying power has also been draining away. Adler’s conclusion was that the market has not yet entered an accumulation phase, and the large-scale withdrawal-and-hold pattern seen around the 2023 to 2024 bottom is not visible in the current chart structure.
Long-term holders made up a larger share of exchange inflows
A separate CryptoQuant reading from verified analyst Darkfost, published on July 28, pointed in a different direction. Darkfost measured long-term holder transfers to exchanges as 5.1% of total exchange inflows on a 90-day moving average, close to the historical peak of about 5.5% seen in 2020.
The two data sets do not directly contradict each other. Adler was looking at the size of total inflows. Darkfost was looking at who was contributing to those inflows. Even as total inflows fell to 24% below the annual average, the share coming from long-term holders climbed to its highest level since 2020. The article framed that as a sign that short-term supply has largely been washed out, while a larger portion of the coins still moving to exchanges now comes from holders who are usually less active.
Darkfost also warned that a 90-day moving average is lagging by design, so the extreme reading may stabilize quickly. Still, at current levels, the report said low overall inflows cannot on their own be treated as proof that market selling risk has cleared.
Fed decision, Treasury yields and derivatives stayed in focus
On the macro side, the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.62% on July 28, its lowest level in about a week. The article said lower oil prices continued to support demand for Treasuries. Falling yields offered some relief for risk assets, but attention was centered on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on July 28 and 29.
The decision was scheduled for release at 2:00 a.m. Taiwan time on July 30. Economists surveyed by FactSet expected the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. At the same time, CME FedWatch showed the market assigning roughly one-third odds to a 25-basis-point hike, after those odds briefly climbed to 46.5% during the week. Inflation was cited at 3.7%, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
The article said that split helps explain why capital remains stuck in the middle. Professional forecasts leaned toward no change, while rate futures still left room for a hike.
Liquidations and price levels pointed to a cautious market
Derivatives data added to the cautious tone. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the market reached $399 million, including $306 million in long liquidations and $93.17 million in short liquidations. A total of 109,976 traders were liquidated, with long liquidations running at more than three times the size of short liquidations. The Fear and Greed Index stood at 29, in the fear zone.
On the technical side, the 14-day high at $66,803 was identified as the first resistance level. On the downside, the article pointed to $63,000, a level Bitcoin briefly lost on July 28.
According to the report, if the Fed leaves rates unchanged and exchange inflows remain below the annual average, Bitcoin could continue to consolidate between roughly $63,000 and $66,800. If an unexpected rate hike pushes Treasury yields higher and turns exchange netflow into a sustained positive reading, then the next level to watch would be the $60,000 mark.