Bitcoin slipped back below $80,000 on Wednesday after a brief breakout attempt failed, and on-chain data points to a familiar source of pressure: traders are taking profits into strength. Analysts are not reading the move the same way. Some see a rebound losing momentum, while others argue the market is still rebuilding from a weak base.
CryptoQuant says the 37% rebound still looks like a bear-market rally
CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s 37% rebound from its April lows still resembles a bear-market rally rather than a confirmed reversal. The firm noted that realized profits have climbed to their highest level since December, while short-term holders are increasingly exiting positions at a gain.
According to the firm, traders have moved back into profit and are cashing out at the fastest pace seen since December. Recent buyers are selling into price strength, adding visible overhead pressure. CryptoQuant also said the market is now sitting on an unrealized profit margin of around 18%, the highest level since June 2025, an area where profit-taking has historically picked up.
Its view is that the rebound has lifted sentiment but has not yet produced the kind of profit profile usually seen in sustained bull runs. At the same time, unrealized gains are already high enough to invite additional selling. Price has recovered. Conviction remains less clear.
Enflux ties the move to macro risk appetite, not just holder behavior
Singapore-based market maker Enflux framed the rally differently. Instead of focusing on wallet behavior, it pointed to the macro event that helped push Bitcoin through the $80,000 level in the first place.
Enflux said the move was part of a broader risk-on reaction after U.S. President Donald Trump paused a U.S. naval operation linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. That development pushed oil prices lower and lifted equities, creating a favorable setup for risk assets including Bitcoin.
Even so, Enflux warned that the market may be giving too much weight to the durability of that catalyst. The firm said previous Trump diplomatic pauses since March were either reversed within days or misread by traders, which raises doubts about whether this kind of macro impulse can support a longer advance on its own.
Glassnode sees early structural repair with $85,200 as the next barrier
Glassnode took the more constructive stance. In its view, Bitcoin’s latest move reflects an early structural recovery rather than a short-lived macro bounce.
The analytics firm said Bitcoin has reclaimed two closely watched on-chain levels: the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis near $79,100. Those levels are often treated as dividing lines between weaker and stronger market conditions.
From there, Glassnode identified $85,200 as the next major resistance zone. It also pointed to improving inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and persistent negative perpetual funding, a sign that some traders are still positioned for downside even as prices recover.
Spot demand remains central to whether the move can hold
Glassnode still stopped short of calling the move a clean breakout. The firm said long-term holders are beginning to realize profits, while elevated realized losses across the broader market suggest Bitcoin still needs stronger spot demand to sustain a more durable leg higher.
For now, the area above $80,000 remains contested. Profit-taking on-chain, questions around the staying power of the macro trigger, and the need for firmer spot buying are all shaping whether this rebound fades as a relief move or extends toward the $85,200 resistance zone.